Kmarion wrote:
All you hear from the talking heads now is the only thing Obama is talking about is change. They say he has no substance or "plan" for change. It's actually pretty easy to find out how he plans to do the things he is talking about.
Barack Obama's Plan
Judgment You Can Trust
As a candidate for the United States Senate in 2002, Obama put his political career on the line to oppose going to war in Iraq, and warned of “an occupation of undetermined length, with undetermined costs, and undetermined consequences.” Obama has been a consistent, principled and vocal opponent of the war in Iraq.
* In 2003 and 2004, he spoke out against the war on the campaign trail;
* In 2005, he called for a phased withdrawal of our troops;
* In 2006, he called for a timetable to remove our troops, a political solution within Iraq, and aggressive diplomacy with all of Iraq’s neighbors;
* In January 2007, he introduced legislation in the Senate to remove all of our combat troops from Iraq by March 2008.
* In September 2007, he laid out a detailed plan for how he will end the war as president.
Bringing Our Troops Home
Obama will immediately begin to remove our troops from Iraq. He will remove one to two combat brigades each month, and have all of our combat brigades out of Iraq within 16 months. Obama will make it clear that we will not build any permanent bases in Iraq. He will keep some troops in Iraq to protect our embassy and diplomats; if al Qaeda attempts to build a base within Iraq, he will keep troops in Iraq or elsewhere in the region to carry out targeted strikes on al Qaeda.
Press Iraq’s Leaders to Reconcile
The best way to press Iraq’s leaders to take responsibility for their future is to make it clear that we are leaving. As we remove our troops, Obama will engage representatives from all levels of Iraqi society – in and out of government – to seek a new accord on Iraq’s Constitution and governance. The United Nations will play a central role in this convention, which should not adjourn until a new national accord is reached addressing tough questions like federalism and oil revenue-sharing.
Regional Diplomacy
Obama will launch the most aggressive diplomatic effort in recent American history to reach a new compact on the stability of Iraq and the Middle East. This effort will include all of Iraq’s neighbors — including Iran and Syria. This compact will aim to secure Iraq’s borders; keep neighboring countries from meddling inside Iraq; isolate al Qaeda; support reconciliation among Iraq’s sectarian groups; and provide financial support for Iraq’s reconstruction.
Humanitarian Initiative
Obama believes that America has a moral and security responsibility to confront Iraq’s humanitarian crisis — two million Iraqis are refugees; two million more are displaced inside their own country. Obama will form an international working group to address this crisis. He will provide at least $2 billion to expand services to Iraqi refugees in neighboring countries, and ensure that Iraqis inside their own country can find a safe-haven.
Is that a parody or is it real?
The problem with that so-called "plan" is that there are irreconcilable goals among the players in Iraq. Talking won't make any of them abandon goals that are critical for their survival. If the US withdrew all combat brigades from Iraq in 16 months, the following things would happen:
1. Shiite militias would massacre Sunnis. President Obama would not be able to stop it because there is still too much hatred and suspicion between the two groups. Leading militias would also be a way for ambitious Shiites to gain recognition and power. And good luck convincing Shiites to share oil revenues with the Sunnis. Who gives away money? Shiite-Sunni violence would hurt US interests because the world would be horrified that the US would let it happen, and the ethnic conflict could drag in Saudi Arabia and Iran on opposite sides.
2. Al Qaeda would re-establish itself in Iraq. With US protection gone, the Sunnis would welcome Al Qaeda as an ally against the Shiite militias. Al Qaeda wouldn't respond to President Obama's diplomacy, and Sunnis facing death squads wouldn't either.
3. Iran's influence in Iraq would dramatically increase. Iran might even openly bring in troops. President Obama would not be able to convince Iran to let chaos reign on its border.
If Obama's "plan" for a withdrawal from Iraq involves phrases like "aggressive diplomacy," "taking responsibility" and "supporting reconciliation," that's just another way of saying he has no plan. McCain will eat him alive.
