Poll

Who is the best candidate for the job?

Barack Obama29%29% - 20
Hilary Clinton1%1% - 1
John McCain14%14% - 10
Ron Paul (is still in the race)22%22% - 15
Other (green, independent, etc.)1%1% - 1
Any of them will handle it well4%4% - 3
None of them will handle it well11%11% - 8
It doesn't matter, the president really can't help8%8% - 6
We are doomed, the end is nigh, everything is futile2%2% - 2
*No one, Bush will be in charge (read below)1%1% - 1
Total: 67
Phrozenbot
Member
+632|7042|do not disturb

I made a poll a while back asking everyone's opinion on where they thought the economy was heading and was happy with some of the feedback, but it is for certain we are headed into a severe recession. But now comes the big question; will this develop into a depression? If so, will it be inflationary or deflationary? Will we have something even worse where the entire global banking system is completely wiped out by derivatives? Is this the "End of Days"?

You don't have to believe that any of this is coming, but you can still be hypothetical. So who is the best to deal with the situation? Does it even matter?

Here is some interesting, and incredibly frightening segments from the latest Korelin Economics report.
Segment 3 - Roger Wiegand explains how the markets have behaved so strangely.
Segment 4 - John Williams, originator of Shadow Government Statistics, tells us what he believes the causes were this past week in the markets.
Greg McCoach continues his discussion from the weekly show about this past week's strange market behaviour.
Segment 4 - Bob Moriarty tells us about his newest dire prediction for the economy, and if his record tells us anything we should be worried. (From Saturday, 03.15.08, Bob Moriarty correctly predicts a correction in gold and silver, and the rise in value in the dollar)

In a deflationary depression prices come down nominally, but so do wages, which means debt, depending on the amount, can become impossible to pay back. This may lead to a mass of creditors liquidating the debtor. Unemployment will soar as people are laid off because it becomes increasingly difficult for businesses competing with each other and to pay off their debts, and many people will lose their homes because of the inability to pay back mortgages.

In a inflationary depression prices inflate at an alarming rate (hyperinflation). First prices can adjust every month, then every week, then every day, then every hour, then possibly every minute. Debt will be repudiated, but because of the amount of inflation at such a rapid pace, there is hardly any economic stability, if none depending how severe it is.

*Basically, if a financial meltdown happened and the entire banking system in the US was destroyed, Bush could use The National Security and Homeland Security Presidential Directive and continue being president beyond his 2nd term if this were to happen this year, if I have interpreted this right.

This is in the event of a "catastrophic emergency." Such an emergency is construed as "any incident, regardless of location, that results in extraordinary levels of mass casualties, damage, or disruption severely affecting the U.S. population, infrastructure, environment, economy, or government functions."

It states "(1) This directive establishes a comprehensive national policy on the continuity of Federal Government structures and operations and a single National Continuity Coordinator responsible for coordinating the development and implementation of Federal continuity policies. This policy establishes "National Essential Functions," prescribes continuity requirements for all executive departments and agencies, and provides guidance for State, local, territorial, and tribal governments, and private sector organizations in order to ensure a comprehensive and integrated national continuity program that will enhance the credibility of our national security posture and enable a more rapid and effective response to and recovery from a national emergency."


My opinions:

Who do I think will handle an economic collapse in the United States the best? Here is my answer.

Where do I think the economy is going? A depression. Everyday it seems more certain. I'm just not quite sure if it will be deflationary or inflationary. I have a feeling it will most likely be inflationary, as the Fed seems to be ok with letting the dollar die while battling deflationary forces in the market and bailing out Wall Street. But if we have hyperinflation, deflation will follow ultimately.

What should you do? Stock up on some food, maybe water if you don't have a dependable source of water. Buy some gold and silver and hold onto some cash. Get a gun to defend you and your family, just in case. And most importantly, get out of debt.

If things get really nasty... I guess learn how to farm and hunt. This is just my opinion though. I have yet to see any good evidence supporting the bulls irrational exuberance that this is just a bump in the road and we are fine.

Roger Wiegand's (alongside Jay Taylor) website http://www.webeatthestreet.com/
John Walter Willaim's website http://www.shadowstats.com/
Bob Moriarty's website http://www.321gold.com/
Korelin Economics Report website http://www.kereport.com/

Last edited by Phrozenbot (2008-03-23 01:17:29)

DrunkFace
Germans did 911
+427|7108|Disaster Free Zone
I don't know what it's like in the US, but the Government really has no major effects on economic conditions at all (in Australia).
FEOS
Bellicose Yankee Air Pirate
+1,182|6837|'Murka

Sky falling much?

Recession? Yes

Severe recession? No

Depression? Of course not

Complete breakdown of society? Are you on crack?

Phrozenbot wrote:

If things get really nasty... I guess learn how to farm and hunt. This is just my opinion though. I have yet to see any good evidence supporting the bulls irrational exuberance that this is just a bump in the road and we are fine.
You have yet to see any good evidence supporting irrational paranoia, but you don't let that stop you. Why the double standard?
“Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.”
― Albert Einstein

Doing the popular thing is not always right. Doing the right thing is not always popular
KuSTaV
noice
+947|6938|Gold Coast
I sure fuckin hope that someone revives the US economy. Otherwise China is lookin mighty fine :\

(Im doin the ASX game.. started on $50k, now on $44k. Invested in some shit and because your economy is failing, ours is now too. We're all fucked :\)
noice                                                                                                        https://static.bf2s.com/files/user/26774/awsmsanta.png
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,072|7198|PNW

Phrozenbot wrote:

No one, Bush will be in charge
I don't think Bush would take a third term if offered one on a silver platter. Remember how he looked in 2000? Look at the guy now. The job sucks the life out of you.
konfusion
mostly afk
+480|6977|CH/BR - in UK

I disagree. The USA is headed for - at most - a recession. I doubt it will last more than 2 years, let alone turn into a full scale depression. I think that any president can do the job - especially considering the Federal Reserve is led by a separate entity - but I believe in Obama, so chose him...

Furthermore, despite his idiocy, I still believe Bush to be a good person, and one that is not that easily corrupted by power. I seriously doubt he would make any attempt on extending his presidency. I think he's had enough.

-konfusion
ATG
Banned
+5,233|6956|Global Command

konfusion wrote:

I disagree. The USA is headed for - at most - a recession. I doubt it will last more than 2 years, let alone turn into a full scale depression. I think that any president can do the job - especially considering the Federal Reserve is led by a separate entity - but I believe in Obama, so chose him...

Furthermore, despite his idiocy, I still believe Bush to be a good person, and one that is not that easily corrupted by power. I seriously doubt he would make any attempt on extending his presidency. I think he's had enough.

-konfusion
Oh Lord, you are a trusting person.
{M5}Sniper3
Typical white person.
+389|7186|San Antonio, Texas
Ron Paul would be best for the economy.
HurricaИe
Banned
+877|6388|Washington DC
Bush can't take a third term -_-

Anyways Phrozen, I think you've been playing the Year Zero alt reality game too much we're going for a recession probably, but we are NOWHERE near the hard times of the Great Depression. Could we go into depression again? Of course! But we have MANY more safe guards to try and keep us out of one (e.g. regulation of banks, insuring of bank deposits FDIC, making sure banks don't loan out too much money at a time, etc).

Also Konfusion, I wouldn't put it past Bush to take a third term if he was able to.
GunSlinger OIF II
Banned.
+1,860|7070

{M5}Sniper3 wrote:

Ron Paul would be best for the economy.
Ron Paul would love it if I werent in this country.


wheres all your anger at him and his acceptance of support from racists individuals and organizations?  double standards?

Last edited by GunSlinger OIF II (2008-03-23 08:10:05)

GunSlinger OIF II
Banned.
+1,860|7070
there are so many god damn economists on this forum, why the hell arent you people in D.C. where all of your powers could be served for the common good?



Phrozen, what are you doing wasting your time here?  We need your help!

Last edited by GunSlinger OIF II (2008-03-23 08:13:38)

Turquoise
O Canada
+1,596|6832|North Carolina
I think Barack will be good, as long as he follows through with his 16-month withdrawal plan.  When we leave Iraq, we will save a lot of money.

Things do get tricky once socialized healthcare enters the picture though.  It would be extremely foolish to implement socialized healthcare before we create a viable border security plan.

My hope is that what happens is Barack wins the presidency and the Republicans gain a slim majority in the Senate.  This way, some balancing will occur in policymaking.  Barack and the House will push us toward a much needed withdrawal from Iraq while the Republicans will continue pushing for border security and privatized SS.
GunSlinger OIF II
Banned.
+1,860|7070
the senate and the house of reps have to be on the same page for things to get done
Hakei
Banned
+295|6422
Hillary.
Turquoise
O Canada
+1,596|6832|North Carolina

GunSlinger OIF II wrote:

the senate and the house of reps have to be on the same page for things to get done
Not necessarily...  balance has been necessary for a lot of progress in government.  The reason why I see it the way I do is because the House introduces legislation, while the Senate modifies it.  We need more liberal bills to be put into action, but we need conservative editing to keep them realistic.
GunSlinger OIF II
Banned.
+1,860|7070
the senate could introduce bills too. if you have a republican senate and democrat house, you arent gonna get shit done.   bills have to be agreed on by both houses of congress.
Turquoise
O Canada
+1,596|6832|North Carolina

GunSlinger OIF II wrote:

the senate could introduce bills too. if you have a republican senate and democrat house, you arent gonna get shit done.   bills have to be agreed on by both houses of congress.
True...  but if the Democrats have both houses and the presidency all at once, we'll probably see 1994 all over again.  However, if the Democrats take a moderate approach, they might be able to hold onto dominance for more than one cycle.  I guess if it comes down to a Democrat presidency with both houses, then it will be up to the Democrats to be moderate for both their own good and the country's good.
CameronPoe
Member
+2,925|6982
To redress the 8 year unchecked fiscal irresponsibility of a heavily right wing government it is now the turn of a left wing government for a while. Unfortunately there are no left wing parties in the US so I guess the US is screwed.

Last edited by CameronPoe (2008-03-23 08:50:01)

ATG
Banned
+5,233|6956|Global Command

CameronPoe wrote:

To redress the 8 year unchecked fiscal irresponsibility of a heavily right wing government it is now the turn of a left wing government for a while. Unfortunately there are no left wing parties in the US so I guess the US is screwed.
lol,wut?


The democratic party isn't left enough for you? What do they have to do; nationalize all industries and provide soup lines?
Bertster7
Confused Pothead
+1,101|7008|SE London

ATG wrote:

CameronPoe wrote:

To redress the 8 year unchecked fiscal irresponsibility of a heavily right wing government it is now the turn of a left wing government for a while. Unfortunately there are no left wing parties in the US so I guess the US is screwed.
lol,wut?


The democratic party isn't left enough for you? What do they have to do; nationalize all industries and provide soup lines?
The democrats aren't even approaching being left wing by European standards.
Turquoise
O Canada
+1,596|6832|North Carolina

ATG wrote:

CameronPoe wrote:

To redress the 8 year unchecked fiscal irresponsibility of a heavily right wing government it is now the turn of a left wing government for a while. Unfortunately there are no left wing parties in the US so I guess the US is screwed.
lol,wut?


The democratic party isn't left enough for you? What do they have to do; nationalize all industries and provide soup lines?
You gotta remember, America is a pretty conservative country compared to most of the First World.  We're closer to the Third World in our conservative nature.

Most of the First World is quite liberal and socialistic -- at least compared to us.
GunSlinger OIF II
Banned.
+1,860|7070
whats 3rd world?  We fighting the communists here?
Turquoise
O Canada
+1,596|6832|North Carolina

GunSlinger OIF II wrote:

whats 3rd world?  We fighting the communists here?
Ok...  using HDI terminology, you can substitute "developing countries" for Third World.
DrunkFace
Germans did 911
+427|7108|Disaster Free Zone

GunSlinger OIF II wrote:

there are so many god damn economists on this forum, why the hell arent you people in D.C. where all of your powers could be served for the common good?
Still at uni... But I may get there (or equivalent in Aus). But seriously economists have the easiest job in the world. All they do is predict stuff, and if they're right, they're geniuses and if they are wrong it because of the unpredictability and randomness of economics (ie human behaviour).

But as I said before, the Government has very little impact on the economy. Their policies will only ever have an indirect effect, and the current American recession (slow down) is nothing but an expected correction after 15 years of strong record growth and over spending by the public. Its basic human emotion, when things are looking good people spend more then they should forcing the central banks to increase interest rates to keep inflation in check, and when things are looking bad people spend less then they should (could) which ends in negative growth and recession.

Yes the huge Government budget deficit is not good, but it is a small percentage of the total Current Account deficit. Governments and political parties may take credit for economic prosperity, but in reality they had very little to do with its success, and a new government is not going to be able to do anything about the current climate. If you vote for governments because of economic policies or 'stereotypes' you are a fool.
DrunkFace
Germans did 911
+427|7108|Disaster Free Zone

CameronPoe wrote:

To redress the 8 year unchecked fiscal irresponsibility of a heavily right wing government it is now the turn of a left wing government for a while. Unfortunately there are no left wing parties in the US so I guess the US is screwed.
If I'm not mistaken, the 'left' (more socialist) wing usually has higher government spending and transfer payment then that of the 'right' (more conservative) 'wing', who are more interested in the small business side of things then the individual. So from that stand point, a right wing party in theory should be better for the business world, the fiscal balance and the economy as a whole... (but it's not).

What I can agree on is "the US is screwed". Well at least for the short-medium term, but like everything, this is just the downside of the cycle which is inevitable and not unexpected.

Last edited by DrunkFace (2008-03-23 09:56:47)

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