Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,822|6524|eXtreme to the maX
Ya, and food production also peaked in 2005...WE'RE ALL GOING TO STARVE!
The cost of food is highly dependent on the cost of fuel.
As fuel availability falls the cost of food will rise.
Unless we go back to using horses.
Look forward to your weekly wage being spent on food an not much else.
Fuck Israel
SoC./Omega
Member
+122|6959|Omaha, Nebraska!

Dilbert_X wrote:

Ya, and food production also peaked in 2005...WE'RE ALL GOING TO STARVE!
The cost of food is highly dependent on the cost of fuel.
As fuel availability falls the cost of food will rise.
Unless we go back to using horses.
Look forward to your weekly wage being spent on food an not much else.
I was being sarcastic!

A lot of people like to think negatively here, lol.

Last edited by SoC./Omega (2008-05-30 08:52:47)

Bertster7
Confused Pothead
+1,101|6999|SE London

Phrozenbot wrote:

Bertster7 wrote:

A) You can't regulate speculation. The financial markets have substantially more power than any nation. They decide the price of commodities and of currency and of everything else. When the government goes up against the financial sector they lose, like with Black Wednesday in the UK. It cannot be done.
There are things governments and it's agencies can do, such as the CFTC acknowledging market manipulation, however chooses not to do so. In this example, silver. But it's rather silly to say speculation dictates the exchange rates or currencies. Central banks have the most influence over them, and they choose to keep them at certain "favorable" exchange rates for the global economy.
Not with oil there isn't. Oil is a different circumstance.

In fact your point about the financial sector, for that is what speculators are, not being able to dictate currency values is just plain wrong. Something illustrated absolutely perfectly by the example I have already given - Black Wednesday. A brief explanation of that is that one Wednesday in the early 90's the financial sector in the UK decided the pound was too strong. They sold immense amounts of UK currency, which made the pound plummet. This in turn caused the government to increase interest rates to stabilise the value of the pound, which they had to do because of the ERM. This did not stop the money men, who responded to this by selling more currency. The government raised rates again, as high as 15%, which seems mental. It didn't take long for the government to accept defeat, since the Bank of England was essentially giving away billions of pounds an hour to try and keep the currency value up - this meant we withdrew from the Exchange Rate Mechanism and stopped shadowing the Mark. A clear example of market traders dictating the value of currency.

Phrozenbot wrote:

Bertster7 wrote:

B) The price will continue to go up because demand will continue to go up and supply won't. In fact it will very soon go into terminal decline. This is not scaremongering, but well demonstrated fact. Speculation fuels these price increases and the price increases fuel speculation. This is not to say we would not be facing increased prices without speculation, because of the supply/demand balance. The (very near) future scarcity of the resource means that it is an attractive buy for speculators and this further inflates the price.
What I'm getting at, is that speculation isn't the cause of the price rise, but it acts as a feedback effect, making the situation worse. But that is how the markets work. Changing that would mean changing the entire global economic system, which is virtually impossible.


Oil prices are set to rise, forever, until it's gone. There is very little anyone can do about this.
Prices will continue to rise because of inflation mainly, and as oil becomes more expensive here in the US, people here will drive less. In fact they already are. However, China and the rest of Asia is picking up on the demand, so it sort of evens out concerning supply and demand.

Your theory that speculation is self-perpetual and will continue forever is false. You need to understand that these speculators are "short", not "long" on oil. They purchase oil, pushing up the price and others will follow because oil starts to look more attractive, and then the major speculators sell at some point to make a profit, which relieves the price of oil. They don't plan to hold onto their oil for years to come. However, if mass speculation brings more mass speculation, then you have a bubble in which case it will burst and the price of oil will collapse.

Most of the speculation occurs on paper. These hedge funds don't store the oil they purchase in some warehouse, they just receive paper saying whoever they bought it from will "promise" to give it to them on demand. So the promise is as good as how honorable the seller is, in which case they may not even have what they are selling to you, or at the time you request your assets. They are sometimes jokingly called naked shorts, and it has lead to many markets to be terribly skewed. It's flabbergasting.

I do agree though the overall trend for the price of oil is up.
I'm not talking about self-perpetual speculation. Your theory that demand for oil is going to remain even is just plain wrong. Look at global oil consumption and predicted future oil consumption, look at the rate at which the global population is rising. There is currently a 3% annual rise in demand for oil. That's a lot, especially considering that we are expected to see a 2% annual decline in natural oil production rates (those figures come direct from the US government - a speech by Cheney in fact) which could begin as soon as 2010. This rise in demand and decline in supply will inflate prices. 2010 is short term and so short term speculators will be drawn to investing in oil, which will exacerbate these price rises. Even if we do not hit peak oil then (the realistic window begins about now till about 2030), the predictions are there which will draw in the investors.

Speculation aside, the change in the balance of supply and demand will have a tremendous effect on prices. Lets say the figures are correct (using 2012 as the point we hit peak oil), by 2022 oil demand will be up 42% and supply will be down by 20%, that's a difference of 62% which, setting all else aside, should mean price rises of 62%, which would be $327/bl (based on an annual inflation rate of 4%).

Last edited by Bertster7 (2008-05-31 02:48:49)

NantanCochise
Member
+55|6396|Portugal/United States
You know gas prices are too expensive when...I go to the gas station as the light comes on showing Im almost out of gas. I realise that all I have with me is a fiver. I put gas in the tank and leave realizing that the low gas light is still on.
i g
Banned
+876|6282|GA

yay $40 for half a tank
Fred[OZ75]
Jihad Jeep Driver
+19|7177|Perth, Western Australia
Oil is going to run out, most likely we have hit "peak oil" and oil is only going to become more sparse and ever more expensive.

The real danger is that OPEC determines how much oil a country is allowed to sell based on it's reserves, strangely when OPEC made this rule most OPEC countries oil reserves magically increased and many have not changed their reserve since... this probably means a lot of large oil producing countries have basically just lied about how much oil they actually have so they can sell more and have banned any independent review of their oil reserve for 30 years... This could mean at some point one or many oil producing countries could just turn around in near future and inform the world they have effectively run out yet still be claiming a huge reserve of oil (then see what happens to the oil price)

Drilling in Alaska will do nothing, it is such a small reserve that to make no impact on global oil reserve... it wouldn't even make a dent in US needs.

So basically we need to find a new fuel source and soon.

Hydrogen, takes a hell of a lot of energy to make and need to be kept at high pressure (think of a car accident with a high pressure liquid hydrogen tank involved)

Ethanol/bio-fuels, Take up a lot of agriculture to make up the total fuel requirements... so food will cost a lot more... and food will go up because of the lack or cost of oil based products (Fertiliser, pesticides, herbicides, etc..)

Electric cars... only good for personal transport around town.

Next it electricity, where are we going to get that from?

Natural gas and LPG are still available in large quantities and new reserves are still being found (unlike oil), IE Bangladesh is sitting on a shit load of the stuff.

Coal... hundreds of years left, may cause global warming... well actually definitely will if we expect to replace oil with coal (ie for hydrogen, ethanol, electric cars etc)

Nuclear... a great option for electricity IF YOU ARE WILLING TO SPEND ON THE SAFE STORAGE OF THE WASTE!!!, and then makes heaps more material for countless nukes.... personally quite like the idea of thorium reactors, much safer, less waste.... Please everyone go nuclear then we can turn Australia into the new super rich Saudi like people (we have most of the world reserves of both uranium and thorium)

Yes this looks like the end, in some ways it will be. life may be getting more expensive from now till a new balance is reached. Food I think is a problem at the moment but I believe this is more short term than continuing problem, as soon as countries like Zimbabwe and Burma fix themselves politically things will improve (they where food bowls of Africa and Asia when the British ran them, yes colonialism is so bad) and a few other counties have better growing seasons (ie Australia we are the second largest exporter of Wheat) then the food crises will ease.

But oil is going up and up till it runs out or becomes so expensive that is is only used either as jewellery or for investment, barrels of oil next to reserves of gold in bank vaults... maybe we will store oil in barrels of gold, a double whammy investment or we'll start hearing "that oil filled crystal really goes with that black dress"....
Kmar
Truth is my Bitch
+5,695|7019|132 and Bush

Kmarion wrote:

FallenMorgan wrote:

Anyways, it made me realize that gas is getting expensive to the point where some people can't survive.
Europe must be apocalyptic.
https://i31.tinypic.com/5a42zm.jpg
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/stor … d=91024837
Xbone Stormsurgezz
Turquoise
O Canada
+1,596|6823|North Carolina
Man, Europe taxes the shit out of gas....
Cheeky_Ninja06
Member
+52|7150|Cambridge, England
seriously. The bus here costs me £5 ($10) to go 5 miles to town. Ive just paid for petrol at 116.9p per litre!!!

Nuclear power FTW! that will charge our electric cars no trouble.

Before you all whine about the medias bs portrayal of nuclear power think on this, the radioactive source inside your smoke detector has a half life of about 450 years

Last edited by Cheeky_Ninja06 (2008-05-31 13:29:24)

venom6
Since day One.
+247|6976|Hungary
1. When the streets will be empty
2. Global catastrophe
3. WW3
4. Fresh better air

Yeah its expencive tbh...so fuk em all...
S.Lythberg
Mastermind
+429|6865|Chicago, IL
I don't have enough money in my bank account to fill the gas tank...
SEREMAKER
BABYMAKIN EXPERT √
+2,187|6986|Mountains of NC

soon my friends ........................ very soon













































https://thesalmonfarm.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/Ubuntu7.10isnotquitereadyforprimetime_8112/MelGibsonMadMax.jpg
https://static.bf2s.com/files/user/17445/carhartt.jpg
Vax
Member
+42|6270|Flyover country
Topic related, good doco on History channel right now Crude
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,822|6524|eXtreme to the maX
On the plus side, European consumers are used to high petrol prices.
The various governments could, if they wanted, scale back the taxes so the price to the consumer would not increase.
Also european vehicles are generally more efficient than the US, thanks in large part to the high taxes europeans have historically paid which has encouraged us to be sensible about what we drive, where we live etc.

The US, OTOH, has subsidised petrol (not clever when you're a net importer) and encouraged consumers to drive behemoths like this for personal transport.
https://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj256/Dilbert_X/SC1.jpg

https://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj256/Dilbert_X/SC2.jpg

https://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj256/Dilbert_X/SC3.jpg

So please, FFS, stop whinging about petrol prices.

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2008-06-01 00:51:09)

Fuck Israel
LividBovine
The Year of the Cow!
+175|6798|MN
Actually the US is shifting towards smaller vehicles.  GM is buying out about a quarter of its work force.  They are shutting down or limiting production of their SUVs. 

http://www.newsobserver.com/business/story/1057904.html


So we shall still whine.

Edit:  Added linky!

Last edited by LividBovine (2008-06-01 01:12:53)

"The President does not have power under the Constitution to unilaterally authorize a military attack in a situation that does not involve stopping an actual or imminent threat to the nation" - Barack Obama (a freshman senator from Illinios)
twoblacklines
all grown up now (its boring)
+49|6625

FallenMorgan wrote:

Today at the gas station we saw a down and out looking one-eyed fellow.  He was sitting on a curb around the gas station, holding an empty gas can.  He had a truck full of scrap metal, and we imagined he needed gas money in order to take the stuff to a scrap yard and make money to live off of.  We felt bad so we gave him around a total of ten bucks or so.  He bought gas - we saw him buy gas, he didn't use it for alcohol or anything.  The gas station didn't sell alcahol - it wasn't a mini-mart thing.

Anyways, it made me realize that gas is getting expensive to the point where some people can't survive.  Here, it's like 4 dollars a gallon.  It's the oil companies who do this.  It has nothing to do with the scarcity of oil.  In general, the oil companies need to be regulated.  If it gets up to say, ten dollars a gallon, nobody can work.

Discuss.
OMG 4 dollar a gallon.

please

its £1.17 a LITRE here, so thats $2.60 a litre = $9.20 a gallon....yes you really have it hard dont you.
jsnipy
...
+3,277|6940|...

Now that gas is cheap (for now) ...
Mekstizzle
WALKER
+3,611|7039|London, England
Just about dipping below £1.00 around these parts. They rise so fast yet fall so slow, fucking bastards. Can't wait until we're all in electric cars powered by nuclear power stations or some shit like that.
Hurricane2k9
Pendulous Sweaty Balls
+1,538|6120|College Park, MD
I saw regular gas for $2.99 today.
https://static.bf2s.com/files/user/36793/marylandsig.jpg
jsnipy
...
+3,277|6940|...

Hurricane2k9 wrote:

I saw regular gas for $2.99 today.
I paid $2.19 last fill up here in the hella filthy dirty south
nukchebi0
Пушкин, наше всё
+387|6742|New Haven, CT
$3.09 here. Its rather sad that anyone could perceive $3.09 as cheap.
Hurricane2k9
Pendulous Sweaty Balls
+1,538|6120|College Park, MD

nukchebi0 wrote:

$3.09 here. Its rather sad that anyone could perceive $3.09 as cheap.
i remember when $1.50 for regular was considered pricey

Also people, please specify what fuel grade you're talking about.
https://static.bf2s.com/files/user/36793/marylandsig.jpg
AussieReaper
( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
+5,761|6571|what

Remember when you used to be able to compare the price of milk to gas and it was pretty similar?
https://i.imgur.com/maVpUMN.png
Hurricane2k9
Pendulous Sweaty Balls
+1,538|6120|College Park, MD

TheAussieReaper wrote:

Remember when you used to be able to compare the price of milk to gas and it was pretty similar?
A gallon of milk, normal milk is like 3 bucks. If you want organic natural milk it's insane. 5 bucks for the smaller carton-types (I'll be damned if I can remember how much milk comes in them. Half a gallon?).
https://static.bf2s.com/files/user/36793/marylandsig.jpg
Catbox
forgiveness
+505|7134
I remember when gas was .35 cents a gallon...lol
Love is the answer

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