Phrozenbot wrote:
Bertster7 wrote:
A) You can't regulate speculation. The financial markets have substantially more power than any nation. They decide the price of commodities and of currency and of everything else. When the government goes up against the financial sector they lose, like with Black Wednesday in the UK. It cannot be done.
There are things governments and it's agencies can do, such as the CFTC acknowledging market manipulation, however chooses not to do so. In this example,
silver. But it's rather silly to say speculation dictates the exchange rates or currencies. Central banks have the most influence over them, and they choose to keep them at certain "favorable" exchange rates for the global economy.
Not with oil there isn't. Oil is a different circumstance.
In fact your point about the financial sector, for that is what speculators are, not being able to dictate currency values is just plain wrong. Something illustrated absolutely perfectly by the example I have already given - Black Wednesday. A brief explanation of that is that one Wednesday in the early 90's the financial sector in the UK decided the pound was too strong. They sold immense amounts of UK currency, which made the pound plummet. This in turn caused the government to increase interest rates to stabilise the value of the pound, which they had to do because of the ERM. This did not stop the money men, who responded to this by selling more currency. The government raised rates again, as high as 15%, which seems mental. It didn't take long for the government to accept defeat, since the Bank of England was essentially giving away billions of pounds an hour to try and keep the currency value up - this meant we withdrew from the Exchange Rate Mechanism and stopped shadowing the Mark. A clear example of market traders dictating the value of currency.
Phrozenbot wrote:
Bertster7 wrote:
B) The price will continue to go up because demand will continue to go up and supply won't. In fact it will very soon go into terminal decline. This is not scaremongering, but well demonstrated fact. Speculation fuels these price increases and the price increases fuel speculation. This is not to say we would not be facing increased prices without speculation, because of the supply/demand balance. The (very near) future scarcity of the resource means that it is an attractive buy for speculators and this further inflates the price.
What I'm getting at, is that speculation isn't the cause of the price rise, but it acts as a feedback effect, making the situation worse. But that is how the markets work. Changing that would mean changing the entire global economic system, which is virtually impossible.
Oil prices are set to rise, forever, until it's gone. There is very little anyone can do about this.
Prices will continue to rise because of inflation mainly, and as oil becomes more expensive here in the US, people here will drive less.
In fact they already are. However, China and the rest of Asia is picking up on the demand, so it sort of evens out concerning supply and demand.
Your theory that speculation is self-perpetual and will continue forever is false. You need to understand that these speculators are "short", not "long" on oil. They purchase oil, pushing up the price and others will follow because oil starts to look more attractive, and then the major speculators sell at some point to make a profit, which relieves the price of oil. They don't plan to hold onto their oil for years to come. However, if mass speculation brings more mass speculation, then you have a bubble in which case it will burst and the price of oil will collapse.
Most of the speculation occurs on paper. These hedge funds don't store the oil they purchase in some warehouse, they just receive paper saying whoever they bought it from will "promise" to give it to them on demand. So the promise is as good as how honorable the seller is, in which case they may not even have what they are selling to you, or at the time you request your assets. They are sometimes jokingly called naked shorts, and it has lead to many markets to be terribly skewed. It's flabbergasting.
I do agree though the overall trend for the price of oil is up.
I'm not talking about self-perpetual speculation. Your theory that demand for oil is going to remain even is just plain wrong. Look at global oil consumption and predicted future oil consumption, look at the rate at which the global population is rising. There is currently a 3% annual rise in demand for oil. That's a lot, especially considering that we are expected to see a 2% annual decline in natural oil production rates (those figures come direct from the US government - a speech by Cheney in fact) which could begin as soon as 2010. This rise in demand and decline in supply will inflate prices. 2010 is short term and so short term speculators will be drawn to investing in oil, which will exacerbate these price rises. Even if we do not hit peak oil then (the realistic window begins about now till about 2030), the predictions are there which will draw in the investors.
Speculation aside, the change in the balance of supply and demand will have a tremendous effect on prices. Lets say the figures are correct (using 2012 as the point we hit peak oil), by 2022 oil demand will be up 42% and supply will be down by 20%, that's a difference of 62% which, setting all else aside, should mean price rises of 62%, which would be
$327/bl (based on an annual inflation rate of 4%).
Last edited by Bertster7 (2008-05-31 02:48:49)