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2008-02-25 09:04:51
Pug
UR father's brother's nephew's former roommate
+652|6970|Texas - Bigger than France
I saw a speaker the other day - his specialty is how politics impacts the economy.  Sorry I forgot his name already.

So this political guy said...
1. We can expect a slight recession, but by end of summer it will be over.

2. No matter who's going to be president, they're going to raise taxes.  Areas of target: investment income, individuals will pay more, and corporate tax will go down.

3. Bush was beginning to make the deficit go the other way recently, but the upcoming rebate will erase that progress.

4. If Hillary wins the nomination, McCain will lose.

5.  If Obama wins the nomination, McCain will win because Obama's out too far on the left.

6. April 22 will be a big day, where Hillary & Obama will play out.  Ohio is for Hillary apparently, there's another midwestern state for Hillary outstanding, and Texas is undecided.  So in other words, Texas will be key in deciding who's the Dem candidate.  (Hillary & Obama were here in Corpus Christi last week.  It's the first visit we've had since who knows when).

7. I can't remember what Dem candidate won Florida, but if the other Dem candidate wins the nomination, Florida (and one other state) will sue, because they're candidate didn't get the nomination.  This has to do with not being represented in the Dem nomination process.  What this means is that if sucessful, it's possible we will have McCain versus TWO Dem candidates in the presidential race (doubtful I would think...).

8. The Obama/Hillary race won't be over until the last part of summer.

9.  The guy honestly had no idea who's going to win this year.
2008-02-25 09:08:26
Turquoise
O Canada
+1,596|6833|North Carolina
Interesting hypotheses...

Florida and Michigan are the 2 states penalized by the DNC that would likely sue.  I just hope the DNC is smart enough to let Florida have its way next time.  Florida is far too important of a state to piss off.

I personally disagree with this guy's assumption that Hillary would beat McCain.  Almost every poll shows McCain winning against Hillary.  By contrast, current polls suggest that Obama might beat McCain.
2008-02-25 09:36:57
Pug
UR father's brother's nephew's former roommate
+652|6970|Texas - Bigger than France

Turquoise wrote:

I personally disagree with this guy's assumption that Hillary would beat McCain.  Almost every poll shows McCain winning against Hillary.  By contrast, current polls suggest that Obama might beat McCain.
Yep.  His opinion is that Hillary has a better chance against McCain.  I think he was using the "whomever is closer to the center wins" theory.

I think we've proved that theory wrong over and over again.

I'm just glad the election is a little more interesting this time around.
2008-02-25 09:42:37
Turquoise
O Canada
+1,596|6833|North Carolina
Yeah, it is pretty funny that image matters more than policy in most elections....   sad really....
2008-02-25 09:59:21
imortal
Member
+240|7093|Austin, TX

Turquoise wrote:

Yeah, it is pretty funny that image matters more than policy in most elections....   sad really....
A McCain aid was on the radio here a couple weeks ago.  He said that polls show that people do not vote over single issues, but typically vote for the candidate they "trust" more.  They (we) appear to be less concerned with how they stand for each policy.  Actually, that sort of makes sense.  We are supossedly trusting whoever we elect to run the country in our stead for the next few years; I want them to be the kind of person who can make decent descisions when the unusual events arise.
2008-02-25 10:05:52
Turquoise
O Canada
+1,596|6833|North Carolina
If people were more logical though, they would simply look at the voting history of each candidate and decide from that which one does things in a manner they most agree with.
2008-02-25 10:08:49
Pug
UR father's brother's nephew's former roommate
+652|6970|Texas - Bigger than France

Turquoise wrote:

If people were more logical though, they would simply look at the voting history of each candidate and decide from that which one does things in a manner they most agree with.
vvvv sig vvvv
2008-02-25 10:11:03
imortal
Member
+240|7093|Austin, TX

Turquoise wrote:

If people were more logical though, they would simply look at the voting history of each candidate and decide from that which one does things in a manner they most agree with.
Except that while many people can agree on one or two issues, the more issues you look at, the fewer people will tend to agree.  Well, unless you are a sheep (no, I am not pointing fingers at anyone).  At that point, you have to start prioritizing which issues are more important to you.  That is politics. 

Me, for example.  I am rooting for McCain, even though I depsise his stance on Gun Control (he has voted to restrict gun rights in every election since Brady).  This is mainly because I am so seriously against more of the policies Obama and Clinton are proposing, and I think McCain has the best chance to beat either of them.  Priorities.
2008-02-25 10:47:02
Turquoise
O Canada
+1,596|6833|North Carolina
Well, I know what you mean.  I'm against McCain because I can't stand his stance on the Iraq occupation.  If it weren't for that, I'd vote for him if it came down to him and Hillary.

Last edited by Turquoise (2008-02-25 10:47:18)

2008-02-25 12:38:12
imortal
Member
+240|7093|Austin, TX
Also, I am very resolute in my belief that, while I do not believe people actually TRY to be evil, Hillary comes closer to that description than most.  If you want to settle down the rift between the right and the left in the US, then hope for McCain or Obama.

Granted, if Hillary was Obama's VP, I would predict him having an untimely end just over halfway through his first term.  And not because of his race or beliefs, but just because he was in someone's way.  Yes, I think THAT little of the woman.

Last edited by imortal (2008-02-25 12:38:31)

2008-02-25 12:39:24
Spearhead
Gulf coast redneck hippy
+731|7118|Tampa Bay Florida
Obama wouldn't even consider picking Hillary as his VP.  I can assure you that.  He'd probably be insulted if he heard someone suggest that, lmao.

Last edited by Spearhead (2008-02-25 12:40:58)

2008-02-25 17:51:14
Pug
UR father's brother's nephew's former roommate
+652|6970|Texas - Bigger than France
You know what would be the ultimate betrayal?

Obama wins, picks BILL Clinton as VP.

Lol
2008-02-26 01:48:12
RAIMIUS
You with the face!
+244|7143|US
Obama has a "cult like" following.  His message of "Change we can believe in" has inspired millions.  Personally, I don't want most of the changes he promotes.  His politics are on the far left side of the spectrum and his views are quite socialist/statist.  I am a moderate libertarian with slight conservative leanings...Obama's politics horrify me, TBH.

Gun control is one of my BIG issues.  Obama has taken several extreme stances against gun-rights, including some rights/programs that reduce crime (national CCW ban, and a ban on SEMI-autos anyone?)
Nationalized Health Care is another one of his big themes.  While I realize that the current system has many problems, I don't think a near-complete socialization of medicine (with a gigantic new government bureaucracy to mismanage it) is a great idea.

Ironically, one of the areas where I generally support the DNC stance is where he takes a fence-sitting position.  I think homosexuals should have equality under the law, but Obama wants some "marriage by another name" with the same(ish) rights.  That doesn't give equal treatment, IMO.

Last edited by RAIMIUS (2008-02-26 01:49:29)

 

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