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Section.80
+447|7328|Seattle, Washington, USA

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I was shown this "Anatomy of a Revolution" theory, created by Crane Brinton, and found it interesting. Here are the details:

Developing Symptoms:
1. People from all social classes are discontented.
2. People feel restless and held down by unacceptable restrictions in society, religion, the economy or the government.
3. People are hopeful about the future, but they are being forced to accept less than they had hoped for.
4. People are beginning to think of themselves as belonging to a social class, and there is a growing bitterness between social classes.
5. The social classes closest to one another are the most hostile.
6. The scholars and thinkers give up on the way their society operates.
7. The government does not respond to the needs of its society.
8. The leaders of the government and the ruling class begin to doubt themselves. Some join with the opposition groups.
9. The government is unable to get enough support from any group to save itself.
10. The government cannot organize its finances correctly and is either going bankrupt or trying to tax heavily and unjustly.

Rising Fever:
1. Government unable to get enough support from any single group (usually split between the aristocracy and the lower classes).
2. Government unable to organize finances.
3. Impossible demands made of government which, if granted, would mean its end. 
4. Unsuccessful government attempts to suppress revolutionaries.
5. Revolutionaries gain power and seem united.
6. Once in power, revolutionaries begin to quarrel among themselves, and unity begins to dissolve.
7. The moderates gain the leadership but fail to satisfy those who insist on further changes.

Crisis Mode
1. Power is gained by progressively more radical groups until finally a lunatic fringe gains almost complete control.
2. A strong man emerges and assumes great power.
3. The extremists try to create a "heaven on earth" by introducing their whole program and by punishing all their opponents (purges).
4. A period of terror occurs.

Convalescence
1. Moderate group regains power.
2. Pressure is relaxed.
3. Amnesty is granted to the radicals.
4. Worst of the old system is replaced.
5. Shift in power structure.
6. Strongman rule is re-established.

What I found most interesting about it was that it applies to most revolutions. The Russian Revolution of 1917, the French Revolution of 1789, some Chinese revolutions, etc. I did notice, however, that several prominent revolutions did not follow this path. The American Revolution and the English Glorious Revolution of 1688, for example. Why does the bell curve not apply to some revolutions such as those? Discuss that question and anything else you want to add.
SenorToenails
Veritas et Scientia
+444|6610|North Tonawanda, NY
That's a pretty Gaussian you've got there. 

I can see the American Revolution followed many of those points with the notable exception of the "Crisis Mode" heading and a few other points.

Last edited by SenorToenails (2008-04-14 21:23:54)

RAIMIUS
You with the face!
+244|7195|US
Sounds very Marxist.  In some revolutions, it is very true, but not all.
DrunkFace
Germans did 911
+427|7161|Disaster Free Zone
What is the "bell curve" meant to represent? Could it not just be a straight line?

Edit: What I mean is what should go on the 'y' axis?

Last edited by DrunkFace (2008-04-14 22:02:28)

SenorToenails
Veritas et Scientia
+444|6610|North Tonawanda, NY

DrunkFace wrote:

What is the "bell curve" meant to represent? Could it not just be a straight line?
It's probably meant to represent a crescendo of revolution and animosity.
S.Lythberg
Mastermind
+429|6927|Chicago, IL

DrunkFace wrote:

What is the "bell curve" meant to represent? Could it not just be a straight line?

Edit: What I mean is what should go on the 'y' axis?
shootin's go on the Y-axis

time on the X
FallenMorgan
Member
+53|6394|Glendale, CA
The bell represents the level of civil disorder I guess.  This is interesting.

We're currently in the Developing Symptoms stage.
S.Lythberg
Mastermind
+429|6927|Chicago, IL

FallenMorgan wrote:

The bell represents the level of civil disorder I guess.  This is interesting.

We're currently in the Developing Symptoms stage.
America has been in that stage since 1773.

we hit the middle once in 1861.

now were back to our usual level of functional dysfunction.
GorillaTicTacs
Member
+231|6854|Kyiv, Ukraine
Study the American revolution a bit closer, you'll see all the symptoms played out, at least in a moderate stance.  The "radical fringe" in our case was libertarian and liberal thought, which was absolutely radical at the time.  The cycle is due to start all over again.  In case nobody has noticed, both the moderate left and the far right are in total agreement over our financial crisis right this second.

Compare the writings of Ron Paul and Alex Jones' staff (far right libertarian) with several financial consultants in lefty blogs (example: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/14 … 523/495783).  They agree now almost 100%.  I'm starting to think the "sunny news" out of the fascist right in power may just be propoganda.
Home
Section.80
+447|7328|Seattle, Washington, USA

SenorToenails wrote:

DrunkFace wrote:

What is the "bell curve" meant to represent? Could it not just be a straight line?
It's probably meant to represent a crescendo of revolution and animosity.
Yeah, I think it's basically just revolutionary fervor.

GorillaTicTacs wrote:

Study the American revolution a bit closer, you'll see all the symptoms played out, at least in a moderate stance.  The "radical fringe" in our case was libertarian and liberal thought, which was absolutely radical at the time.  The cycle is due to start all over again.  In case nobody has noticed, both the moderate left and the far right are in total agreement over our financial crisis right this second.

Compare the writings of Ron Paul and Alex Jones' staff (far right libertarian) with several financial consultants in lefty blogs (example: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/14 … 523/495783).  They agree now almost 100%.  I'm starting to think the "sunny news" out of the fascist right in power may just be propoganda.
True, they are quite similar in some respects, but we never had the purges (or am I missing that?) and we never established a strongman rule, which seems to be the biggest difference to me.
unnamednewbie13
Moderator
+2,081|7252|PNW

In Warhammer 40K's Imperium, chop off the last half (replace with purged, cleansed or exterminated) and you have your sci-fi uprising.

Last edited by unnamednewbie13 (2008-04-15 00:05:49)

GorillaTicTacs
Member
+231|6854|Kyiv, Ukraine

Home wrote:

SenorToenails wrote:

DrunkFace wrote:

What is the "bell curve" meant to represent? Could it not just be a straight line?
It's probably meant to represent a crescendo of revolution and animosity.
Yeah, I think it's basically just revolutionary fervor.

GorillaTicTacs wrote:

Study the American revolution a bit closer, you'll see all the symptoms played out, at least in a moderate stance.  The "radical fringe" in our case was libertarian and liberal thought, which was absolutely radical at the time.  The cycle is due to start all over again.  In case nobody has noticed, both the moderate left and the far right are in total agreement over our financial crisis right this second.

Compare the writings of Ron Paul and Alex Jones' staff (far right libertarian) with several financial consultants in lefty blogs (example: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/14 … 523/495783).  They agree now almost 100%.  I'm starting to think the "sunny news" out of the fascist right in power may just be propoganda.
True, they are quite similar in some respects, but we never had the purges (or am I missing that?) and we never established a strongman rule, which seems to be the biggest difference to me.
The loyalist exodus took away approximately 5% of the new American population in 3 years immediately after the Revolutionary War.  I'm speculating that a lot of them didn't give up their entire life's accomplishments to run away without some sort of motivation.  Purges don't need to be violent to be effective.  The "Alien and Sedition Acts", passed later but rescinded in 1800, were mostly aimed at refugees from the on-going French Revolution but did have a lot of connotations for British citizens and loyalists remaining in the US.  During the war itself, there was a lot of tarring and feathering of British loyalists going on, which no recorded deaths occured but was nevertheless pretty painful.

If 5% of the dissenting population just walks away willingly, why use violence?

Strongman rule can be considered the struggle between Federalists and Republicans (ironically the liberals back then) in the post-revolution years.  The Federalists won major victories with the national bank establishment, allowance for a standing army, and the aforementioned Alien and Sedition Acts, meaning our loose Republican federation just came under the grip of a strong central government with a stronger executive.  The next 200 years of American history is the slow leak of power from the people and states toward D.C.
Flaming_Maniac
prince of insufficient light
+2,490|7187|67.222.138.85
What I want to know is how to get paid for writing down common, obvious behavioral patterns.
Scorpion0x17
can detect anyone's visible post count...
+691|7246|Cambridge (UK)

Flaming_Maniac wrote:

What I want to know is how to get paid for writing down common, obvious behavioral patterns.
Get some letters after your name.
S.Lythberg
Mastermind
+429|6927|Chicago, IL

Scorpion0x17 wrote:

Flaming_Maniac wrote:

What I want to know is how to get paid for writing down common, obvious behavioral patterns.
Get some letters after your name.
F. Maniac PhD, MD.

you'll make billions

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