
I was shown this "Anatomy of a Revolution" theory, created by Crane Brinton, and found it interesting. Here are the details:
Developing Symptoms:
1. People from all social classes are discontented.
2. People feel restless and held down by unacceptable restrictions in society, religion, the economy or the government.
3. People are hopeful about the future, but they are being forced to accept less than they had hoped for.
4. People are beginning to think of themselves as belonging to a social class, and there is a growing bitterness between social classes.
5. The social classes closest to one another are the most hostile.
6. The scholars and thinkers give up on the way their society operates.
7. The government does not respond to the needs of its society.
8. The leaders of the government and the ruling class begin to doubt themselves. Some join with the opposition groups.
9. The government is unable to get enough support from any group to save itself.
10. The government cannot organize its finances correctly and is either going bankrupt or trying to tax heavily and unjustly.
Rising Fever:
1. Government unable to get enough support from any single group (usually split between the aristocracy and the lower classes).
2. Government unable to organize finances.
3. Impossible demands made of government which, if granted, would mean its end.
4. Unsuccessful government attempts to suppress revolutionaries.
5. Revolutionaries gain power and seem united.
6. Once in power, revolutionaries begin to quarrel among themselves, and unity begins to dissolve.
7. The moderates gain the leadership but fail to satisfy those who insist on further changes.
Crisis Mode
1. Power is gained by progressively more radical groups until finally a lunatic fringe gains almost complete control.
2. A strong man emerges and assumes great power.
3. The extremists try to create a "heaven on earth" by introducing their whole program and by punishing all their opponents (purges).
4. A period of terror occurs.
Convalescence
1. Moderate group regains power.
2. Pressure is relaxed.
3. Amnesty is granted to the radicals.
4. Worst of the old system is replaced.
5. Shift in power structure.
6. Strongman rule is re-established.
What I found most interesting about it was that it applies to most revolutions. The Russian Revolution of 1917, the French Revolution of 1789, some Chinese revolutions, etc. I did notice, however, that several prominent revolutions did not follow this path. The American Revolution and the English Glorious Revolution of 1688, for example. Why does the bell curve not apply to some revolutions such as those? Discuss that question and anything else you want to add.