RAIMIUS wrote:
Bertster7 wrote:
RAIMIUS wrote:
....
3+ decades present a LOT of possibilities. The current legacy systems (F-15, F-16, etc.) will not be able to compete against generation 4.5 and 4.5+ fighters or a well-built air-defense system without taking significant losses. The USAF would prefer to spend money than lose pilots and/or air dominance.
We like overkill. It makes our job a lot safer when no one can realistically compete.
1. Russia? Really? Are you being serious?
2. China isn't going to be doing any of that. Even if they did, it wouldn't pose a threat. With Communism still firmly in place China is going to continue to stifle any spark of innovation, which means they couldn't finance anything long term and will remain dependant on Western innovation.
3. The F-22 is complete overkill for that.
4. HA! You mean like Baghdad? Yeah, I remember that being a serious problem in the past.....
You really aren't looking at this in a realistic way.
You are arguing that the F-22 shouldn't be built because there COULD NOT be a credible threat to US air superiority in the next 20-40 years.
I'd like to borrow your crystal ball, because I cannot accurately predict how the world will be several decades from now.
You know that 500+ Flanker fleet...It should be complete in the 2010-2015 timeframe. That's 2 to 7 years!
20-40 years is not a very long time. You seem to think the world is going to drastically change in that timeframe. It is exceptionally unlikely to, not impossible, just unlikely. The fact is that any global power that could pose a threat to the US will be deeply tied to them economically. As long as this remains the case, which it is very likely to (unless the US falls from superpower status and slips into a deep, deep recession (in which case maintaining a fleet of Raptors would become virtually impossible) or the power that poses a threat loosens economic ties to the US (and allies) to such an extent that they could mount some form of attack, which neither Russia or China could do) there is no credible threat.
So, with Russia and China firmly out of the picture for at least 50 years and Europe firmly allied to the US who is there to pose an aerial threat?
It's not so much a military question as an economic one and long term economic trends are moderately predictable.
*edit*
I'll try and clear up why Russia and China can't be a threat to the US, I don't think I explained fully enough earlier:
China:
China develop nothing. They are the factory of the world. They build stuff that is designed in Europe and the US. Without the income they get from US/EU manufacturing contracts then China have a really shit economy. Social trends have shown that under Communist governments people are not driven enough to come up with good ideas and therefore good designs for products. Even if the Communist regime were to fall, which it looks in no danger of doing, it would take many years for Chinese designers to get good at designing stuff. Therefore China's economy is in the hands of the Europeans and Americans.
If China were to attack the US, then they would go bankrupt. Losing the money that is pumped into their country from the West would utterly fuck them over. This is why it will not happen until China escape from their economic dependence on the US and EU, which will not happen any time soon.
Russia:
Russia have substantially less economic dependence than China, though more than 50% of trade with Russia is to the EU (which would be unlikely to continue since most of Europe would aid the US through NATO). Even taking into account Russia's fast economic growth and massive energy resources, the Russian government would be extremely foolish to piss off NATO, since that would almost certainly plunge their economy back into the state it was in during the Cold War.
Russia & China:
MAD.
End of story.
The F-22 is a pointless, very fancy toy. There is absolutely no call for it. Anyone with an airforce that could pose any sort of threat to the USAF has a large nuclear arsenal. No one wants to go starting a nuclear war. Therefore it won't happen. Therefore the F-22 is a waste of money.
Last edited by Bertster7 (2008-04-30 11:11:13)