BF2S Forums One BIG reason the economy is jacked

These are all potentially high risk to those who do invest in such markets, however that risk is faced by the company employees or average customer - they are invariably those who suffer when it all collapses.

I agree with you that it is a concerning problem, and I don't think that it is the "stupid illegal aliens" who are to blame. They are an essential part of the workforce, that are there because it's the typical American who see these hard workers as lazy, when in fact they work harder and for less pay, the jobs most of you wouldn't be willing to do anyway.

Australia used to have what was known as The White Australia policy, that intentionally restricted non-white immigration to Australia from 1901 to 1973, (the legislation was removed piece by piece by following Governments since WW2.

It was a terrible policy, because the potential labor provided by the immigrants was always limited by those allowed into the country. And Australia's industry suffered. At the moment though you'll often find immigrants working the lower skilled jobs, which is beneficial to them for income, and the whole industry is provided with a steady workforce.

TheAussieReaper wrote:

These are all potentially high risk to those who do invest in such markets, however that risk is faced by the company employees or average customer - they are invariably those who suffer when it all collapses.

I agree with you that it is a concerning problem, and I don't think that it is the "stupid illegal aliens" who are to blame. They are an essential part of the workforce, that are there because it's the typical American who see these hard workers as lazy, when in fact they work harder and for less pay, the jobs most of you wouldn't be willing to do anyway.

Australia used to have what was known as The White Australia policy, that intentionally restricted non-white immigration to Australia from 1901 to 1973, (the legislation was removed piece by piece by following Governments since WW2.

It was a terrible policy, because the potential labor provided by the immigrants was always limited by those allowed into the country. And Australia's industry suffered. At the moment though you'll often find immigrants working the lower skilled jobs, which is beneficial to them for income, and the whole industry is provided with a steady workforce.

I didn't say "stupid illegal aliens".
I said only stupid illegal aliens work the farms for slave wages for more than one season.

Of course, when the wind changes direction, the oil companies raise prices, because they can, but my theory is solid.

Inflation and a weak dollar means you get less for what you pay for. Thus a measured unit (barrel in this case) cost more. The price per barrel before it is refined cost more.

Some good news though:

Wall Street shot higher Thursday as investors, while anticipating another dismal jobs report Friday, viewed the rising dollar and falling oil prices as promising signs for the economy. The Dow Jones industrial average soared nearly 190 points to close above 13,000 for the first time since Jan. 3.

It's nice to see us close over 13000 again. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080501/ap_ … all_street

The majority of homes purchased by flippers are dead in the market homes anyways. Flippers usually end up raising the values of homes around them. They put work into them to bring them up .. ever hear the phrase "your bringing the neighborhood down"?  It's hard to sell a house when your neighbors yard looks like a jungle. Flippers are also regulated and when it comes to new homes you are penalized if you sell within a couple years. There are usually cdd's in place that prohibit you from selling within a certain time as well. For example, I bought a home in October, if i were to sell this home within two years I would have to pay the association all of the profits as well as capital gains taxes. This is to protect the builder (don't under sell them) and preserve the neighborhoods value. I suggest you look into the rules for real estate investing. It is regulated.

Kmarion wrote:

It's nice to see us close over 13000 again. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080501/ap_ … all_street

It isn't going to stay there.






Turq, okay, thanks. I forgot the role buying on margins had in starting it.

I agree it is refreshing to hear good news about the economy.

But sounds like

The market and the economy had buoyed itself from one source of hope to the next for a whole decade. First it was the end of war-related inflation and booming exports for war reparations, next artificially low interest rates in 1925 and 1927 and booming exports due to a reduced value of the Dollar vs. the Pound. There were major tax reductions instituted by the Republicans under Hoover and finally in June of 1929 an international accord was struck with the Germans (albeit short-lived) over the financing of war reparations, a major issue of the decade.

http://www.shambhala.org/business/goldo … usdep.html

Not that i want that, really.

The House sellers/Estate agents are definitely partly to blame for the down turn here. Inflating the housing market and pandering to investment buys seen one house in my town sold 15 times in 12 months................wft? Now house prices are so inflated that people won't buy as they are waiting on a drop in price and this has had a massive knock on effect.

One of the factors are that the US imports several times more than it exports.

Great, now we get to become cheap labor...

On the bright side, we'll probably have less illegal immigration as our standard of living starts falling down toward Mexico's.

Stock bull market in the 20's became a bubble and bursted. Dotcom bull market became a bubble and bursted. Housing bull market became a bubble and bursted (and is far from over). Commodities bull market to become the next bubble to burst? Notice a pattern here? Why is that? All these bull markets that were realistic and healthy, became bubbles. Why? Because when you have tons of credit to throw around, you go where the herd goes, and then the bull market gets unrealistically inflated and becomes a bubble, and eventually pops.

I've said this time and time again. It's the Federal Reserve's fault for having interest rates too low for too long. All these "bubbles" have been fueled with cheap and easy credit through low interest rates. With so much cheap credit, the result is excessive speculation. Even the little guy can take a piece of the pie. Banks just dump wheel barrels of money at your door step. You've been preapproved for this, you've been preapproved for that, now go spend damn it!

Well I know the increasing price in oil has a lot to do with inflation, but there is a lot of credit derivatives in commodities. According to Frank Veneroso, base metals (copper, nickel, tin, aluminum etc) are riddled with derivatives, inflating their price excessively (video, PDF). But derivatives have also been seen pushing down the price of certain commodities.

I still think the increase in the price of oil (and other commodities) mainly has to do with inflation at this point. M3, the broadest measure of money supply for the dollar, is the highest it has ever been in the series and continues to rise (17-18%). The Fed just lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 2% recently. And as I've pointed out before, the relation between the price of gold and oil is remarkably stable, and gold is a good indicator of inflation. The price of gold would be much higher if it wasn't being suppressed.

Jim Rogers said this is the greatest commodity bull market of all time. In reality it is more like the greatest dollar bear market of all time. John Walter Williams from ShadowStats.com said he thinks we will have hyperinflation by 2010, and James Turk from Goldmoney.com says the dollar will collapse this summer. Of course, hyperinflation hasn't even crossed mainstream's mind, but people flee to commodities, hard assets, and other tangible assets to hedge against inflation.

But I agree speculators are now starting to drive the market, but I think it is coming from the shorts. Base metals on the other hand, I think Frank Veneroso makes a good point. But hey, if what he is saying is true, and there is a giant bubble in commodities, then it will burst, the Fed will lower interest rates, and we will see another bubble. If you don't like it, vote for someone who will abolish the Fed. If not, get used to it.

One bubble I'm sure of is in bond markets. Who the hell is buying 30 year bonds with 4-5% yields? Like I said I while back, you can't have that low of yields while inflation is at 17%. And you don't even need bond yields to spike to 17% to make these debt services impossible to pay. Imagine them at just 10%. This is the biggest bubble waiting to burst.

Kmarion wrote:

Kmarion wrote:

We will see what happens with the jobs report tomorrow.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080502/ap_ … all_street

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. … zarro.html

nukchebi0 wrote:

When did the dollar become the premiere currency?
After WWII?

USD became the international reserve currency at Bretton Woods in 1944. Also put us on a pseudo gold standard until 71 when Nixon closed the gold window.

edit: spelling

Last edited by Phrozenbot (2008-05-03 10:42:24)