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Poll

Will the US/Israel attack Iran?

No61%61% - 8
Yes, before the Presidential election7%7% - 1
Yes, after the election but before Inaugration0%0% - 0
Yes30%30% - 4
Total: 13
2008-07-08 22:27:47
Diesel_dyk
Object in mirror will feel larger than it appears
+178|6416|Truthistan
Will the US/Israel attack Iran?

I think its inevitable that there will be a strike on Iran in the next few months. Here is how I think its going to happen.

Since its an election year and I think that any war with Iran will not be supported by the public, I think that the most likely scenerio for a strike on Iran would be to have Israel attack Iran. This attack would be with the full knowledge and support of the US and probably include US planes without US insignia or flying with Israeli insignia. Of course the US would deny any involvement but US supporters of the strike would state that we would have to come to the support and aid of Israel. I think that this is the only plausible scenerio for starting a war with Iran given the current politcal mood in the US.

I think that this attack will happen in September but it would be unclear what the effect an attack on Iran would have on the election. But for sure the price of oil would be $200 plus. Another likely date would be in December after the election but during a time when Bush would still be able to commit the resources of the US including the committment of troops and provide guarantees of support to Israel.

So what do you think? Are we going to attack?
2008-07-09 02:26:20
FEOS
Bellicose Yankee Air Pirate
+1,182|6832|'Murka

Might it happen? Maybe.

Will it happen in a way even remotely as you've described? Absolutely not.
“Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.”
― Albert Einstein
Doing the popular thing is not always right. Doing the right thing is not always popular
2008-07-09 02:36:09
djphetal
Go Ducks.
+346|6757|Oregon
No, this attack with not happen.  Condi Rice has the president's ear.  She always has.  I believe she is serious about trying to find some middle ground in the Israeli/Palestinian crisis by the end of 2008.  If the U.S. or Israel were to attack anywhere inside Iran all chances of comprise and reconciliation would be lost.  200 dollars a barrel?  More like 400 after they cut off the region's entire supply.  I will give this a 10% chance of happening because with Chaney and Ahmadinejad in office, you can never rule anything out.

This is DJPHETAL'S friend.  Don't judge him too harshly based on what I say.
2008-07-09 02:45:26
PureFodder
Member
+225|6707
From what I understand the US military and intelligence are mainly against an attack, the populace of the US are generally against an attack, but it's still possible that the Bush administration will decide to shove the next president forcefully down that path.

What you describe in the OP is something like the early stages of the Vietnam war, and that didn't turn out too well. A lesson learned hopefully.
2008-07-09 03:15:21
CameronPoe
Member
+2,925|6977
I'm erring on the side of No. I don't think they'll do it. This is a major test of the US' ability to rein in Israel however.
2008-07-09 03:22:00
rammunition
Fully Loaded
+143|6283
No, but the mind games/flexing will continue though
2008-07-09 03:28:04
jsnipy
...
+3,277|6944|...

Very doubtful. If it were to happen it would be made seem as though Israel did it without the go ahead of the US.
2008-07-09 05:53:32
B.Schuss
I'm back, baby... ( sort of )
+664|7263|Cologne, Germany

won't happen, at least not in the near future. The diplomatic front is still open, and any military action against Iran that includes israeli participation would most likely jeopardize any peace effort in the middle east, as djphetal's friend has said. As important as the israeli/palestinian peace process is, the US won't allow that to collapse. Iran will be left for the new administration to deal with, I believe.

Furthermore, it will take years for Iran to come even remotely close to completing their enrichment program, let alone actually producing weapons-grade nuclear material. At that point I'd be worried about military action, but no earlier.
One important issue for the US to decide on this will be good intel. As long as they know what goes on in Iran's nuclear facilities, and can predict at what time Iran might be ready to produce weapons-grade material, there is no need to jump the gun.

All of this only, of course, if Iran actually plans to enrich uranium to weapons-grade capacity. If they don't do it, there will be no need to go in at all.

 

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