ATG
Banned
+5,233|6947|Global Command
I did my civic duty and tried to see the brightside of things.

But the reality is, this recent bailout will not work.

What does that mean?
It means the whole thing is still a house of rotten cards.

Let's examine California.

The housing market can be no where near the bottom.
Median Income: $53,770

Median Price for a California Home (June 2008): $368,250

30 year fixed mortgage with 5% down

Down payment: $18,412

PITI: $2,594

Net Take Home Pay: $3,607 (filing as a married person with 2 exemptions).
This means the average family must make do with about $1,100.00 per month to cover property taxes, vehicle license fees, gas, food, cable etc. etc.

This translates into a massive wave forthcoming of new foreclosures. At this rate, 71.9% of the household net monthly income is being taken up by the house payment. Even if we use gross monthly income, this person would not qualify for the underwriting in government-backed loans. Now that income does matter and income is a direct reflection of the health of the economy, we are going to enter the next phase of the housing market. The first phase was the bubble bursting creating the economic decline and prices falling, the second phase is going to be the uncovering of the fraud and toxic loans while recasts hit at the most inopportune time.

California is offering short term notes to deal with a budget crysis. They claim they will pay 4.5% interest on notes due mid next year to cover shortfalls this year. My question, what about next year, when the state realizes that thousands of businesses have closed or seen massive revenue cuts and as a fallout the state receives a lot less than they are planning on? CAlifornia will be the first state to declare bankruptsy.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= … =worldwide


here are some links if you like, showing that at every opportunity to act like they cared about us and our future the state has spent every goddamned penny and then cried poverty for more.
http://articles.latimes.com/2005/may/08 … me-budget8
http://209.85.173.104/search?q=cache:-m … =firefox-a
http://www.ctj.org/taxjusticedigest/sta … alifornia/

The best thing young voters can do is vote no to all incumbents, shun credit and avoid all taxes possible. Vote no on any and all bond or spending proposals. ALL OF THEM.

The system must be reworked and the ranks of government employees purged of MILLIONS of parasites who are to be cast into the work force to live a real life subject to the laws they saddled us with. This will only happen when the said system goes belly up and grinds to a halt.

As for the bailout, it was like the Fed chief and SecTres kicked in the doors of capital hill like two old west gunmen; " give us 700 billion now. Don't ask why. Give it to us or else. "

Remember the Federal Reserve is not a governmental institution, but a bank cartel. They have no concern for using the US government funds (tax dollars) to bail out incompetent banks (management). The ones that should have concern are our Senators and Representatives who have to face the inevitable inflation and tax increases required to support this bailout.
chittydog
less busy
+586|7253|Kubra, Damn it!

They saw all the power we handed over to the gov't when we were scared after 9/11 and wanted to get in on the action. Wait until the next big scare to see who gets a bunch of new power then.
topal63
. . .
+533|7137
Let me put it this way... correct!

California(1800billion), Texas(1100billion), New York (1000billion), Florida(750billion), Illinois (600billion), Pennsylvania(510billion), Ohio(470billion), New Jersey(450billion), Michigan(380billion), Georgia (380billion). The majority of the economy is concentrated in the top 10 state economies (those are somewhat old, more or less, numbers).

These economies without a doubt are being pummeled Calif + Florida. The money, job, business destruction has yet to filter through the system. What waits on the horizon - is not so good. Last year in the construction field was a severe recession that became a depression. Which has mutated into a near 95% or even complete stoppage some-places. I've never seen anything this bad ever. I couldn't even conceive of this 3 years ago. 2 Years ago yes. 1 year ago for sure; without a doubt. Now I am like eh whatever: I am a dinosaur and the comet has already impacted.
_____________________
Or let me put it this way... we're royally fucked and someone just used a trillion dollar hot poker to push the trillion dollar (war) poker that is in danger of colling off - further up the arse.
_____________
Edited again!!!
https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2008/3/19/thumb_480_housing_starts193.png
The beginning to end year will look like a flat line - near death experience (begin2008-end2008). In the fourth quarter, plus part of last quarter... many projects (National Builders in certain markets) experienced ZERO PERMIT APPLICATIONS.

Last edited by topal63 (2008-10-15 12:01:04)

IG-Calibre
comhalta
+226|7161|Tír Eoghan, Tuaisceart Éireann

topal63 wrote:

Let me put it this way... correct!

California(1800billion), Texas(1100billion), New York (1000billion), Florida(750billion), Illinois (600billion), Pennsylvania(510billion), Ohio(470billion), New Jersey(450billion), Michigan(380billion), Georgia (380billion). The majority of the economy is concentrated in the top 10 state economies (those are somewhat old, more or less, numbers).

These economies without a doubt are being pummeled Calif + Florida. The money, job, business destrutcion has yet to filter through the system. What waits on the horizon - is not so good. Last year in the construction field was a severe recession that became a depression. Which has mutated into a near 95% or even complete stoppage someplaces. I've never seen anything this bad ever. I couldn't even conceive of this 3 years ago. 2 Years ago yes. 1 year ago for sure; without a doubt. Now I am like eh whatever: I am a dinosaur and the comet has already impacted.
_____________________
Or let me put it this way... we're royally fucked and someone just used a trillion dollar hot poker to push the trillion dollar (war) poker that is in danger of colling off - further up the arse.
Pah!! Lowing has clearly demonstrated using the sale of wii's as concrete proof that the economy is sound sir - all this is nothing more than conspiracy & scaremongering!
topal63
. . .
+533|7137

IG-Calibre wrote:

topal63 wrote:

Let me put it this way... correct!

California(1800billion), Texas(1100billion), New York (1000billion), Florida(750billion), Illinois (600billion), Pennsylvania(510billion), Ohio(470billion), New Jersey(450billion), Michigan(380billion), Georgia (380billion). The majority of the economy is concentrated in the top 10 state economies (those are somewhat old, more or less, numbers).

These economies without a doubt are being pummeled Calif + Florida. The money, job, business destruction has yet to filter through the system. What waits on the horizon - is not so good. Last year in the construction field was a severe recession that became a depression. Which has mutated into a near 95% or even complete stoppage some-places. I've never seen anything this bad ever. I couldn't even conceive of this 3 years ago. 2 Years ago yes. 1 year ago for sure; without a doubt. Now I am like eh whatever: I am a dinosaur and the comet has already impacted.
_____________________
Or let me put it this way... we're royally fucked and someone just used a trillion dollar hot poker to push the trillion dollar (war) poker that is in danger of colling off - further up the arse.
Pah!! Lowing has clearly demonstrated using the sale of wii's as concrete proof that the economy is sound sir - all this is nothing more than conspiracy & scaremongering!
What kills me about that thread or talking to him in general is that he thinks I am taking a political stance on what happened. I am merely telling him based upon my experience, as an insider, what happened as I know it; not believe it; more or less. Then I just wanted to give him some facts - and let him paint the picture of reality himself. I think he refuses... to think anything else exists beyond himself i.e. his concept of personal responsibly is extended far beyond its possible sphere of influence. His obsessions seem solipsistic even IMO.
Lotta_Drool
Spit
+350|6602|Ireland
Fuck Californians!  They have done more to fuck up this country than any other statesmen have.  They can jump the fence and go to Mexico and mow lawns for all I care.

I wish that fucking state would fall into the ocean so this country wouldn't be so fucked up by the liberal politicians they keep selecting into power.

I think I will sit back and laugh.
ATG
Banned
+5,233|6947|Global Command

topal63 wrote:

IG-Calibre wrote:

topal63 wrote:

Let me put it this way... correct!

California(1800billion), Texas(1100billion), New York (1000billion), Florida(750billion), Illinois (600billion), Pennsylvania(510billion), Ohio(470billion), New Jersey(450billion), Michigan(380billion), Georgia (380billion). The majority of the economy is concentrated in the top 10 state economies (those are somewhat old, more or less, numbers).

These economies without a doubt are being pummeled Calif + Florida. The money, job, business destruction has yet to filter through the system. What waits on the horizon - is not so good. Last year in the construction field was a severe recession that became a depression. Which has mutated into a near 95% or even complete stoppage some-places. I've never seen anything this bad ever. I couldn't even conceive of this 3 years ago. 2 Years ago yes. 1 year ago for sure; without a doubt. Now I am like eh whatever: I am a dinosaur and the comet has already impacted.
_____________________
Or let me put it this way... we're royally fucked and someone just used a trillion dollar hot poker to push the trillion dollar (war) poker that is in danger of colling off - further up the arse.
Pah!! Lowing has clearly demonstrated using the sale of wii's as concrete proof that the economy is sound sir - all this is nothing more than conspiracy & scaremongering!
What kills me about that thread or talking to him in general is that he thinks I am taking a political stance on what happened. I am merely telling him based upon my experience, as an insider, what happened as I know it; not believe it; more or less. Then I just wanted to give him some facts - and let him paint the picture of reality himself. I think he refuses... to think anything else exists beyond himself i.e. his concept of personal responsibly is extended far beyond its possible sphere of influence. His obsessions seem solipsistic even IMO.
I believe he has a guit complex.
He is making money off the war in Iraq.
He is away from his children.


He rightfully feels shitty about it yet has been sucked into and made slave by the machine.


@ Spit, stfu doofuss, NY is broke too.
13rin
Member
+977|6898

ATG wrote:

@ Spit, stfu doofuss, NY is broke too.
As is Florida.  It scares the crap outta me when I hear politicians in my state stand up and say "we need to be more like California"...  And yes, sadly they say that.
I stood in line for four hours. They better give me a Wal-Mart gift card, or something.  - Rodney Booker, Job Fair attendee.
Kmar
Truth is my Bitch
+5,695|7019|132 and Bush

topal63 wrote:

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2008/3/19/thumb_480_housing_starts193.png
Good. You cant continue to build in an already flooded market and then turn around and say.."gee wtf, why are house values dropping?".

Resales are rising in many markets. That is what we need to happen. Clear out the inventory first.
Xbone Stormsurgezz
Lotta_Drool
Spit
+350|6602|Ireland

ATG wrote:

topal63 wrote:

IG-Calibre wrote:


Pah!! Lowing has clearly demonstrated using the sale of wii's as concrete proof that the economy is sound sir - all this is nothing more than conspiracy & scaremongering!
What kills me about that thread or talking to him in general is that he thinks I am taking a political stance on what happened. I am merely telling him based upon my experience, as an insider, what happened as I know it; not believe it; more or less. Then I just wanted to give him some facts - and let him paint the picture of reality himself. I think he refuses... to think anything else exists beyond himself i.e. his concept of personal responsibly is extended far beyond its possible sphere of influence. His obsessions seem solipsistic even IMO.
I believe he has a guit complex.
He is making money off the war in Iraq.
He is away from his children.


He rightfully feels shitty about it yet has been sucked into and made slave by the machine.


@ Spit, stfu doofuss, NY is broke too.
Jump the fence ATG, Jump the fence. 

I know NY is broke, but they didn't import 14 million mexicans with their liberal policies.  14 million breeding cockroaches destroying our health care system, infesting our school system, clogging our jail system, ruining our insurance system.

I just stated that I don't feel sorry for Californians.  Well except you because you are the one conservative that lives there.
topal63
. . .
+533|7137

Kmarion wrote:

Good. You cant continue to build in an already flooded market and then turn around and say.."gee wtf, why are house values dropping?".

Resales are rising in many markets. That is what we need to happen. Clear out the inventory first.
Did I say bad or "wtf?" No, I said zero. Which means zero (or rather near zero) labor activity associated with near-zero or zero activity; zero new permits; near zero jobs. The market is primarily flooded with price-point problems. Without speculation there wouldn't be price-point problems; thus a flood of homes that are un-sold. So yeah, of course the prices have to drop and the trend is as stated a near death flat line - in housing starts. I've already admitted I am a dinosaur - now listen to the sound of my extinction.

PS: I don't really have a choice about; or a say about; the craptastic business environment (related to engineering, construction & new housing). Therefor I am not worried, it's out of my control.

Last edited by topal63 (2008-10-15 14:17:43)

stryyker
bad touch
+1,682|7138|California

Lotta_Drool wrote:

ATG wrote:

topal63 wrote:


What kills me about that thread or talking to him in general is that he thinks I am taking a political stance on what happened. I am merely telling him based upon my experience, as an insider, what happened as I know it; not believe it; more or less. Then I just wanted to give him some facts - and let him paint the picture of reality himself. I think he refuses... to think anything else exists beyond himself i.e. his concept of personal responsibly is extended far beyond its possible sphere of influence. His obsessions seem solipsistic even IMO.
I believe he has a guit complex.
He is making money off the war in Iraq.
He is away from his children.


He rightfully feels shitty about it yet has been sucked into and made slave by the machine.


@ Spit, stfu doofuss, NY is broke too.
Jump the fence ATG, Jump the fence. 

I know NY is broke, but they didn't import 14 million mexicans with their liberal policies.  14 million breeding cockroaches destroying our health care system, infesting our school system, clogging our jail system, ruining our insurance system.

I just stated that I don't feel sorry for Californians.  Well except you because you are the one conservative that lives there.
I don't care for California either, but I live there tbh, and If we went, the rest of the US would implode. We kind of supply alot of things the US likes to use..
oChaos.Haze
Member
+90|6857

Lotta_Drool wrote:

ATG wrote:

topal63 wrote:


What kills me about that thread or talking to him in general is that he thinks I am taking a political stance on what happened. I am merely telling him based upon my experience, as an insider, what happened as I know it; not believe it; more or less. Then I just wanted to give him some facts - and let him paint the picture of reality himself. I think he refuses... to think anything else exists beyond himself i.e. his concept of personal responsibly is extended far beyond its possible sphere of influence. His obsessions seem solipsistic even IMO.
I believe he has a guit complex.
He is making money off the war in Iraq.
He is away from his children.


He rightfully feels shitty about it yet has been sucked into and made slave by the machine.


@ Spit, stfu doofuss, NY is broke too.
Jump the fence ATG, Jump the fence. 

I know NY is broke, but they didn't import 14 million mexicans with their liberal policies.  14 million breeding cockroaches destroying our health care system, infesting our school system, clogging our jail system, ruining our insurance system.

I just stated that I don't feel sorry for Californians.  Well except you because you are the one conservative that lives there.
lmfao once again you prove your idiocy.  Never fails...
topal63
. . .
+533|7137

DBBrinson1 wrote:

ATG wrote:

@ Spit, stfu doofuss, NY is broke too.
As is Florida.  It scares the crap outta me when I hear politicians in my state stand up and say "we need to be more like California"...  And yes, sadly they say that.
I swear, I was watching a news report and actual local governemental/municipal jobs were still on the rise - in states. Spending was continuing to escalate: 4% increases, then 5%, now about 6.5% (?). Can't remember where, sorry.
Kmar
Truth is my Bitch
+5,695|7019|132 and Bush

topal63 wrote:

Kmarion wrote:

Good. You cant continue to build in an already flooded market and then turn around and say.."gee wtf, why are house values dropping?".

Resales are rising in many markets. That is what we need to happen. Clear out the inventory first.
Did I say bad or "wtf?" No, I said zero. Which means zero (or rather near zero) labor activity associated with near-zero or zero activity; zero new permits. The market is primarily flooded with price-point problems. Without speculation there wouldn't be price-point problems; thus a flood of homes that are un-sold. So yeah, of course the prices have to drop and the trend is as stated a near death flat line - in housing starts. I've already admitted I am a dinosaur - now listen to the sound of my extinction.
I wasn't singling you out. I was talking to the general why I can't believe this is happening crowd. The market is flooded with bank owned and foreclosures. They almost total half of all sales in my area.
Xbone Stormsurgezz
topal63
. . .
+533|7137
"I can't believe this is happening"

I know! I know! I know!.... because it's not butter? It's definitely not like b-u-t-t-e-r.
Scorpion0x17
can detect anyone's visible post count...
+691|7184|Cambridge (UK)
There may be trouble ahead,
But while there's music and moonlight and love and romance,
Let's face the music and dance.
topal63
. . .
+533|7137

Scorpion0x17 wrote:

There may be trouble ahead,
But while there's music and moonlight and love and romance,
Let's face the music and dance.
Poofter.
Scorpion0x17
can detect anyone's visible post count...
+691|7184|Cambridge (UK)

topal63 wrote:

Scorpion0x17 wrote:

There may be trouble ahead,
But while there's music and moonlight and love and romance,
Let's face the music and dance.
Poofter.
Eh?

Angela Rippon had fantastic legs.
topal63
. . .
+533|7137

Scorpion0x17 wrote:

topal63 wrote:

Scorpion0x17 wrote:

There may be trouble ahead,
But while there's music and moonlight and love and romance,
Let's face the music and dance.
Poofter.
Eh?

Angela Rippon had fantastic legs.
I am just trying out some brit lingo, mate.
usmarine
Banned
+2,785|7180

jesus grape.  why do you enjoy the deep end so much?  i mean, you come up for air every once and a while a regain consciousness, but then you go right back under.
KEN-JENNINGS
I am all that is MOD!
+2,991|7050|949

Kmarion wrote:

topal63 wrote:

Kmarion wrote:


Good. You cant continue to build in an already flooded market and then turn around and say.."gee wtf, why are house values dropping?".

Resales are rising in many markets. That is what we need to happen. Clear out the inventory first.
Did I say bad or "wtf?" No, I said zero. Which means zero (or rather near zero) labor activity associated with near-zero or zero activity; zero new permits. The market is primarily flooded with price-point problems. Without speculation there wouldn't be price-point problems; thus a flood of homes that are un-sold. So yeah, of course the prices have to drop and the trend is as stated a near death flat line - in housing starts. I've already admitted I am a dinosaur - now listen to the sound of my extinction.
I wasn't singling you out. I was talking to the general why I can't believe this is happening crowd. The market is flooded with bank owned and foreclosures. They almost total half of all sales in my area.
My friend lost over 200K in value in his home and refinanced at that value, leaving his mortgage at around 175K more than his house is worth.  He hasn't been able to make payments for about 6 months - and the bank is trying as hard as it can not too foreclose.

Home sales in my area are down and have been going down for a few months now.  Virtually half (49%) the home sales last month were foreclosures as well.
FEOS
Bellicose Yankee Air Pirate
+1,182|6829|'Murka

The problem with that analysis is that it uses the median, which is a location parameter for a statistical sample. That simply means that 50% of the sample will be below that number and 50% of the sample will be above that number. So it skews the interpretation.

A more appropriate statistical measure would be the mean income and mean house cost. But even at that, the follow-on analysis assumes that people making the median income will purchase the median-priced home. That is flawed. Even if mean were used instead of median, the same flaw exists in the assumption, as the upper 50% (orders of magnitude higher in CA than elsewhere) skews the mean, as well.

That's not to say that the situation isn't unsettling in CA. Homes are overpriced in the extreme, particularly in/around San Francisco. The market simply won't support those kinds of values, and an adjustment is occurring.

topal63 wrote:

I am merely telling him based upon my experience, as an insider, what happened as I know it; not believe it; more or less.
Meh. Everyone here knows that your personal, first-hand, inside experience is meaningless in the face of someone who has read about it.
“Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.”
― Albert Einstein

Doing the popular thing is not always right. Doing the right thing is not always popular

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