uziq
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The Australian drug harms ranking study in the J. Psychopharmacology (i.e. a top-tier journal)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/1 … 1119841569

Background/Aim:
The aim of the current study was to review drug harms as they occur in Australia using the Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methodology adopted in earlier studies in other jurisdictions.

Method:
A facilitated workshop with 25 experts from across Australia, was held to score 22 drugs on 16 criteria: 9 related to harms that a drug produces in the individual and 7 to harms to others. Participants were guided by facilitators through the methodology and principles of MCDA. In open discussion, each drug was scored on each criterion. The criteria were then weighted using a process of swing weighting. Scoring was captured in MCDA software tool.

Results:
MCDA modelling showed the most harmful substances to users were fentanyls (part score 50), heroin (part score 45) and crystal methamphetamine (part score 42). The most harmful substances to others were alcohol (part score 41), crystal methamphetamine (part score 24) and cigarettes/tobacco (part score 14). Overall, alcohol was the most harmful drug when harm to users and harm to others was combined. A supplementary analysis took into consideration the prevalence of each substance in Australia. Alcohol was again ranked the most harmful substance overall, followed by cigarettes, crystal methamphetamine, cannabis, heroin and pharmaceutical opioids.

Conclusions:
The results of this study make an important contribution to the emerging international picture of drug harms. They highlight the persistent and pervasive harms caused by alcohol. Policy implications and recommendations are discussed. Policies to reduce harm from alcohol and methamphetamine should be a priority.
https://journals.sagepub.com/na101/home/literatum/publisher/sage/journals/content/jopa/2019/jopa_33_7/0269881119841569/20190621/images/large/10.1177_0269881119841569-fig2.jpeg

but i guess it's just david nutt?

Still, drugs aren't zero-harm and many of the issues are as yet unknown, there's still no case for legalising something harmful.
yeah, the complete non-toxicity of psilocybin and LSD, and their manifold harms ... look at how they dominate the above chart! and the issues certainly are unknown, we haven't been testing them for decades, or anything. frightening, they must be kept at class A!

Last edited by uziq (2020-01-02 17:30:59)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
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Non-toxicity? LSD cannabis etc are certainly non-zero on your own chart. I thought they were harmless?

And we don't know the long-term effects at this stage at all, whereas we do for alcohol which will obviously skew it.

Looking at the US opioid crisis I'm very doubtful its less harmful than the occasional lager.


Looking at your study:

"Study design - A facilitated workshop with 25 experts from across Australia, representing a range of professional domains, was held in April 2018"
"The workshop followed standard decision conferencing processes, which have been previously reported (Nutt et al., 2010). "

Right so it was a single day conference, using the Nutt data as the starting point and the same methodology and based on people's opinions, no actual data was presented or included. "Hands up who thinks alcohol is bad! OK great work guys"

Oh and look here:

https://i.imgur.com/Lix2iTV.png

So they factored out all the harmless alcohol consumption and only included the harmful alcohol consumption - but didn't do the same with the illegal drugs - to conclude that harmful alcohol consumption is harmful and that means all alcohol consumption must be harmful.

That is a neat trick, shit methodology and wouldn't meet an academic rigour test.
What is it with the pro-drugs crowd not being able to put a cogent argument together?

D- Worse than your previous attempt, strongly inclined to withdraw your degree.

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2020-01-02 17:56:14)

Fuck Israel
uziq
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'consumed at levels above australian low-risk guidelines'. that just means consuming more than '4 standard drinks' (where a small glass of wine is 1.5) on any given day and 10 per week.

https://cdn.adf.org.au/media/images/standard-drink-infographic.width-1524.png
https://adf.org.au/insights/guidelines- … -drinking/

i don't think anyone has ever argued that having one beer with food is catastrophic. my point was that alcohol is an addictive, harmful substance, and evidently causes huge amounts of harm to the individual and society. lots of people drink more than the low-risk guidelines. the same guidelines say

No safe level of drinking

While there is no safe level of drinking, the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) has developed some guidelines to help us understand the impact of drinking on our health, wellbeing and safety.
you're acting like they've dishonestly taken out all 'normal' alcohol drinkers, which just isn't the case. your own alcohol consumption is probably above the 'low-risk' guidelines. it's so fucking ironic that the australian govt's definition of 'harmful' drinking, by which you think they're 'cheating' the methodology, is 4.5 pints of beer a week.

Last edited by uziq (2020-01-02 18:12:18)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
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Whatever, if you factor out all the data which doesn't suit your agenda it renders your argument moot.

Try to find a paper which doesn't use this Nutt guy as a basis.

Also, the website you quoted doesn't say 10 units a week, it says 2 units/day or 14/week, just like the UK one.
https://www.drinkaware.co.uk/alcohol-fa … uidelines/

Seems your drug-addled brain is imagining things.

Derpzique wrote:

you're acting like they've dishonestly taken out all 'normal' alcohol drinkers, which just isn't the case
Once again, you're talking shit based on no data

"HOW many standard drinks do you clock up in a week?

Think about your total — that glass of red wine with dinner, the after-work trip to the pub on Friday, the occasional Saturday night bender.

If your number exceeds nine standard drinks in a week, you’re probably consuming more booze than the average Australian.

A major study by the Foundation of Alcohol Research and Education (FARE), which surveyed 1820 Australians, found that most of us are “moderate drinkers” — that is, we have nine or fewer standard drinks per week.

While the percentage of drinkers has increased from 77 to 82 per cent since last year, more than three-quarters do so no more than two days a week."
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/food/ … 05f0f444fb

So at least three-quarters of drinkers are well within the current low guidelines, and >60% of the population as a whole drink with little to no risk at all, but these are excluded from the study you quoted.
What a disastrous problem, we must put a stop to this and get these people on synthetic drugs some guy can personally profit out of.

So yeah, if you dismiss the bulk of the available data you can draw any conclusion you like.

Snorting snuff is safer than drinking two bottles of vodka a day -> People should switch from the occasional Chardonnay to smoking crystal meth.

F - Please hand over your certificates for destruction and leave the campus. The Guild of Hipsters has been notified and will be cancelling your accreditation.

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2020-01-02 20:34:35)

Fuck Israel
uziq
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first off, i already linked another study with a completely different methodology, which took a toxicological view on the matter rather than an epidemiological one as in Nutt and other groups who repeat his line of research. you didn't engage with that at all, so sure. it rather inconveniently finds that, no surprises, alcohol is very toxic, and states that in government guidance and public policy, the risk of alcohol is systematically undervalued whilst other illicit drugs are overvalued.

i was switching between 2 versions of the australian 'low-risk' website, one from 2016 and one from 2017, hence the discrepancy in the numbers. the one with the infographic image detailing what a 'standard drink' is has different numbers to the latter.

both of those links are technically out-of-date, anyway, at least in terms of the UK, where newly publicised guidance in 2018 says it is better to drink no alcohol at all.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 … ajor-study
Even the occasional drink is harmful to health, according to the largest and most detailed research carried out on the effects of alcohol, which suggests governments should think of advising people to abstain completely.

The uncompromising message comes from the authors of the Global Burden of Diseases study, a rolling project based at the University of Washington, in Seattle, which produces the most comprehensive data on the causes of illness and death in the world.

Alcohol, says their report published in the Lancet medical journal, led to 2.8 million deaths in 2016. It was the leading risk factor for premature mortality and disability in the 15 to 49 age group, accounting for 20% of deaths.

[...]
Moderate drinking has been condoned for years on the assumption that there are some health benefits. A glass of red wine a day has long been said to be good for the heart. But although the researchers did find low levels of drinking offered some protection from heart disease, and possibly from diabetes and stroke, the benefits were far outweighed by alcohol’s harmful effects, they said.
[...]

Dr Robyn Burton, of King’s College London, said in a commentary in the Lancet that the conclusions of the study were clear and unambiguous. “Alcohol is a colossal global health issue and small reductions in health-related harms at low levels of alcohol intake are outweighed by the increased risk of other health-related harms, including cancer,” she wrote.

“There is strong support here for the guideline published by the Chief Medical Officer of the UK who found that there is ‘no safe level of alcohol consumption’.”
another lancet article, another big study group, another method -- no david nutt.

but i look forward to you rebutting yet another paper by yet another research group published yet again in the world's top journal of medical letters. you should really switch industries, you've got this drug harm thing down pat!

Last edited by uziq (2020-01-02 21:52:29)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
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OK, good luck convincing the world not to drink at all. There's no safe level of breathing, or taking a bath, so what?

But David Spiegelhalter, Winton professor for the public understanding of risk at the University of Cambridge, said the data showed only a very low level of harm in moderate drinkers and suggested UK guidelines were very low risk.

“Given the pleasure presumably associated with moderate drinking, claiming there is no ‘safe’ level does not seem an argument for abstention,” he said. “There is no safe level of driving, but government do not recommend that people avoid driving. Come to think of it, there is no safe level of living, but nobody would recommend abstention.”
You should probably kill yourself, since being alive carries a risk of death.

Still waiting for some non-Nutt evidence that alcohol is provably worse than crack cocaine.

Lets use his methodology to prove that family cars are more dangerous than sports cars:

Lets say in an average year 1.2 per 1000 family cars are involved in crashes, compared with 1.9 per 1000 sports cars.
But if you factor out the 75% of family cars which aren't crashed because they are driven carefully and within the law, and which therefore don't count, that makes for 1.2 per 250 family cars against 1.9 per 1000 for sports cars.

ZOMG 4.8 per 1000 family cars crash vs 1.9 per 1000 sports cars! So family cars are 2.5 times more dangerous than sports cars! We must ban family cars and get people into sports cars - statistics prove it.

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2020-01-02 22:03:03)

Fuck Israel
uziq
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well now you're sounding just like me when i talk about doing, you know, certain illicit drugs. more chance of dying riding a horse, etc.

i am perfectly comfortable with that line of argument and justification. i'm not teetotal myself, after all. knowing the risk/harm doesn't mean one abstains entirely. it just means i see no justification for locking someone up for 5 years for their decisions, whilst someone else can drink themselves into cirrhosis, or cancer, or get behind the wheel and kill someone else, seemingly with no restrictions on their choices.

incredible how you'll cherry-pick the arguments to suit your own prejudices and protect your own habits.

i also don't think anyone has ever said alcohol is worse than crack cocaine. you always do this silly hissy trick. as soon as someone points out that alcohol is keeping some very bad company in terms of harm/toxicity and risk, you start spluttering about people injecting heroin. everyone knows that crack cocaine and heroin are life-ruining substances. the fact is that there's about 15 substances that will get you serious jail time that fall far below alcohol in terms of harm to self and society.

Last edited by uziq (2020-01-02 22:13:58)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
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Meanwhile, I have made the momentous decision to switch my beer supply from bottles to cans.
They should be more environmentally friendly, lighter and more efficient to recycle etc. than glass.

And having conducted a double-blind test (I shut both my eyes at the same time) the beer quality is indistinguishable - when drinking from a glass.
(Not being poor I don't drink from a can or bottle)
Fuck Israel
uziq
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drinking alone must be a blast.
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
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uziq wrote:

i also don't think anyone has ever said alcohol is worse than crack cocaine.

uziq wrote:

https://journals.sagepub.com/na101/home/literatum/publisher/sage/journals/content/jopa/2019/jopa_33_7/0269881119841569/20190621/images/large/10.1177_0269881119841569-fig2.jpeg
Fuck Israel
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
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uziq wrote:

drinking alone must be a blast.
It must be.
Fuck Israel
uziq
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Dilbert_X wrote:

uziq wrote:

i also don't think anyone has ever said alcohol is worse than crack cocaine.

uziq wrote:

that's an australian drugs harm ranking, which i cited for your benefit, based on australia's stats and supplemented with 'prevalence of use' data pertinent to australia. do keep up. i thought you were an academic mastermind cutting down published research at one stroke? that's not a 'global objective drugs ranking'.

crystal meth is not that much of a global health issue. evidently bogans are losing their teeth to chemicals manufactured in SE asia rather than taking hugely expensive cocaine imported from south america. it's almost like you don't understand very simple drug trends.

Last edited by uziq (2020-01-02 22:25:14)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
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Crystal meth is not much of a global health issue? Maybe not in Cheltenham, it is in other places.

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTH9dEl2ItptLsAF_NlGxq9DJ5kIPms2m6iekK29L5wGABVP_CI

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcSBUVLYVTcB8uPq7pnI6eK5AhAM9UH7XYTu5kcaukB_0OMW_8zU

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcSCMYkT31cNaqY9jgIKL9eGVQuj6EF3iQ39uusqBCucrCc9wYGk

We should get people off cider and onto meth.

uziq wrote:

crystal meth is not that much of a global health issue. evidently bogans are losing their teeth to chemicals manufactured in SE asia rather than taking hugely expensive cocaine imported from south america. it's almost like you don't understand very simple drug trends.
Oh well if they're poor they don't matter.

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2020-01-02 22:37:09)

Fuck Israel
uziq
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my point being that its 'harm' in the 'australian harm ranking' is obviously inflated by its high prevalence of use in australia. not that australia is the only place in the world that takes crystal meth. everyone knows about rust-belt states falling to crystal meth. breaking bad was a decade ago, dilbert. if anything, the opiate crisis has superseded it as a public health issue.

Oh well if they're poor they don't matter.
my point was australia's stats are inflated towards crystal meth because of its availability in the region and cost, not that 'poor people don't matter'. it's very expensive to get cocaine to australia. you need coca leaves, which only grow in a specific region. meanwhile you can cook up meth in the back of a VW in the outback. point ... missing it ...

no crystal meth in cheltenham, that's true. barely any in europe, in fact, outside of the czech republic/poland i believe (that's amphetamines and speed generally). hence me saying it's not a 'global health issue' and isn't ranked quite as high as alcohol in the wider studies.

and again, i never said that alcohol was worse than crack, or crystal meth, or heroin. i've never once argued that any of these drugs should be legalised? it's almost like you're not listening. well done at being able to post alarming pictures. link another zombie video! that'll really bury the case for magic mushrooms.

people in cheltenham don't really drink cider, by the way. wrong stereotype. bristol, where i live, would be more like it.

Last edited by uziq (2020-01-02 22:43:39)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
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So what are you arguing?

The data you presented suggests alcohol is worse than crack, or crystal meth, or heroin, now you're saying its not but it is worse than some other drugs on the same chart, drugs which you do like.

You need to get your information together in some coherent way before you start making arguments.
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uziq
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what i've said is that alcohol is a harmful drug and is far worse than many other banned substances. you said it wasn't. i linked about 4 different studies, toxicological, epidemiological, sociological, which stated exactly what i said.

i said that certain drugs are relatively harmless, certainly not as deleterious to your health as alcohol, not as toxic, and not as bad for their effects on society and relationships. among them MDMA, mushrooms/LSD, drugs with next to no toxicity, in the case of the latter two no neurotoxicity whatsoever (alcohol is directly neurotoxic), drugs which are non-addictive and which are in fact being approved now for medicine. weed is also another obvious example of a drug that, in moderate amounts, is a lot less bad for you than habitual alcohol consumption.

i said that illicit drugs are not illegal because they're more harmful. you said they are. they patently aren't. the laws aren't based on rankings of 'harm' at all. the UN's initial guidelines outlined the logic: that drugs with no medical benefits and only recreational uses should be considered most illegal. this is now being relaxed as the thin edge of the wedge, i.e. medical applications of MDMA/LSD/mushrooms, is getting to work (mushrooms were legal until the 2000s in any case).

reforming the classification system won't result in everyone having a drugs bonanza. it'll just alleviate a senseless load of human suffering, costly incarceration, and criminalisation of people pursuing their own low-risk, low-harm consumption. your statements that all illicit substances should continue to be banned, and banned at the highest classification, is too ridiculous to even bother with in any substantive way.

your endless wrongheaded reply seems to be, 'it's illegal because it's harmful'. which has been shown, by various methodologies and rubrics, absolutely not true. they're illegal because they're illegal, and governments have't been inclined to change it and lose portions of their electoral vote; the US's pre-eminence in leading a conservative 'war on drugs' has seen many, though not all, countries toe the line. alcohol is more harmful than a number of drugs, or, to put it another way, is at least as harmful as certain other drugs, which makes a mockery of your whole 'logic'.

if you want to make some moral argument about 'society going to the dogs' because of what people choose to do in their spare time, in the privacy of their own home, then at least be open about it and admit that you're waging a culture war, not a medical one. drugs are not classified into legal brackets based on their putative harm. the system needs a reshuffle and people should stop duping themselves with this logic that, because alcohol (like tobacco) are legal, they are 'OK', and everything else, because they are illegal, are scary and life-ruining. it is illiterate.

the discussion we've got onto about taking acknowledged risks, and admitting that things which give us pleasure often come at some cost (pace the cambridge prof you quoted), seems to me to be getting at some sense, finally. that's essentially been my approach to drug-taking, period, people convincing themselves that getting drunk and going to the pub twice a week is 'OK' because it's legal and the social norm would do better to be more aware of this thinking. you're harming yourself, as the understanding used to go with anything more than 4.5 pints a week (now it's less, but scales with intake in any case), in the short term as well as the long, harming yourself more in fact than with the use of a host of other drugs, and you should stop deluding yourself about this fact. if that's a risk that you weigh up and consider worth the pleasure, then go for it. but drop the pious anti-drugs bullshit.

Last edited by uziq (2020-01-02 23:14:55)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
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Thats great and all, but you've contradicted the studies you've cited which suggest alcohol is most harmful of all, more so than crystal meth, heroin, opioids etc. You can't cite a study then say its wrong because it doesn't fit with your view, but try to use the bits which do fit with your view.

Please cite a study which puts alcohol at exactly the level of harm which fits with your thinking.
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uziq
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i didn't contradict the studies at all. one is based and weighted on australia, hence a different result. stop being so fucking obtuse.

all of the studies fit my assertion that alcohol is more harmful than most illegal drugs, invalidating your claims that all is right in the world, alcohol is legal because it's mostly harmless, other drugs are illegal because they're 'excessively harmful', too bad, etc.  every single one of them has alcohol in the top categories of risk. you being pedantic over whether it's more or less harmful than crack or crystal meth is not a rebuttal. i've never argued that crack, heroin or crystal meth should be legalised.

no surprises that every study with a different method and a different sample will produce slightly different results. wowzers! but how funny that all the results broadly agree and establish a pattern: a pattern with alcohol consistently in the top-rank of the most harmful drugs. my point being that many recreational drugs are banned for reasons that have nothing to do with their harm. you have said, time and again, that 'they're illegal because they're excessively harmful'. this is wrong. my own personal preferences, or the fact that some drugs out of the dozen or so most common are excessively harmful, and should remain banned, is not a rebuttal

the basis of your counter-argument against these studies, which all point in one direction, seems to be that you link videos of afghans taking heroin in the street, or zombie homeless, or crystal meth addicts with pustulating faces and 'brain effects', as if there isn't a shadow population across every suburb and city of alcoholics and people utterly wracked by alcohol. you show brain scans - wow! science! - of the effects of MDMA and crystal meth on the brain, when you know damn well that a google images search will return the same alarming images for alcohol. it's just dishonest in the extreme.

https://thelastchardonnay.files.wordpress.com/2018/06/image-33.jpg?w=1125&h=963
https://faarall.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/brain.png
https://images.agoramedia.com/everydayhealth/gcms/Cirrhosis-of-the-Liver-722x406.jpg
https://www.alcoholrehabguide.org/app/uploads/2019/05/Homeless-Alcoholism-425x283.jpeg

omFG!!!!!
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
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All the studies cited put alcohol as being worst, you're saying its not, you can't say the studies are wrong but they're also right.

And they're all basically the one study, produced by someone with a vested interest who grossly manipulates data to suit his argument.

"Black is white, except it isn't, its a shade of grey, and its exactly the shade I decide it is - based on the study which says black is white - there I proved it"

Sorry, not convinced.
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uziq
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it's worst when combining individual & societal harms, yes, with various methods to account for weighting of drug prevalence/availability. obviously the methods are going to be probabilistic and so making absolute statements is pointless. i'm not interested in saying 'alcohol is the worst drug ever' because it's hard enough to get it into your thick skull that alcohol is even properly harmful, even though it's legal, as compared to many other drugs which are outlawed.

2 of the studies had nothing to do with david nutt. completely different methodologies and studies. that they cite him, among any number of other studies in the field,  is evidence only of completely routine academic good practice. sorry, try again.

Last edited by uziq (2020-01-03 00:08:34)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
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Which two studies?

I'm still really doubtful that alcohol is worse, on an average person by person basis than, say heroin.
When you know that the 75% of alcohol users who were predicted to suffer and cause no to negligible harm were excluded from the figures it does support my point that your argument is based on rubbish.

Divide the figures for alcohol by four and suddenly all your arguments are turned on their head.
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uziq
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but people aren't saying that alcohol is worse, on an average person by person basis, than heroin. literally no one has ever said that. not even the studies i have linked which give alcohol a high harm/risk evaluation. the meaning of their results isn't a recommendation to take up heroin. drinking a beer every day with a meal is undoubtedly better for you than shooting up heroin every single day. who is claiming otherwise? the whole idea of 'risk' and 'harm' is abstract, and not just about the direct toxicology of a substance, but also its environment of consumption, etc etc, which need to be taken into account. obviously.

for the umpteenth time, i've never pointed out alcohol's flaws so that i can make a claim that heroin is an amazing drug. it is a terrible drug. just alcohol is also officially Very Bad. there are lots of drugs which are not as bad as heroin or alcohol. is this really so fucking complicated?

'75% of people' weren't excluded in that study at all, you just pulled that figure out of your arse, and besides it was an australia-specific study that took some (arguably outdated) australian government guidelines on 'low-risk' consumption as a noise filter. where are you getting it from that 75% of people's alcohol consumption is under 4.5 pints a week? and besides, plenty of governments and health ministers now advise that any amount is harmful, so even that 'low-risk' claim is spurious and up for debate.

Last edited by uziq (2020-01-03 03:56:00)

Dilbert_X
The X stands for
+1,836|6642|eXtreme to the maX
'75% of people' weren't excluded in that study at all, you just pulled that figure out of your arse, and besides it was an australia-specific study that took some (arguably outdated) australian government guidelines on 'low-risk' consumption as a noise filter. where are you getting it from that 75% of people's alcohol consumption is under 4.5 pints a week? and besides, plenty of governments and health ministers now advise that any amount is harmful, so even that 'low-risk' claim is spurious and up for debate.

Dilbert_X wrote:

https://i.imgur.com/Lix2iTV.png

So they factored out all the harmless alcohol consumption and only included the harmful alcohol consumption

Dilbert_X wrote:

A major study by the Foundation of Alcohol Research and Education (FARE), which surveyed 1820 Australians, found that most of us are “moderate drinkers” — that is, we have nine or fewer standard drinks per week.

While the percentage of drinkers has increased from 77 to 82 per cent since last year, more than three-quarters do so no more than two days a week."
The study factored out people who drink below the supposed harmful level.

Half of people drink 9 units per week, well below the safe level of 14

Three quarters of people "do so no more than two days a week" ie likely drink below the harmful level of 14.

Do try to keep up.

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2020-01-03 04:52:41)

Fuck Israel
Dilbert_X
The X stands for
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Oh hey, 87% of Australians consume 14 drinks or fewer in an average week, not 75%. Page 18.
http://fare.org.au/wp-content/uploads/F … -FINAL.pdf

If you deliberately exclude 87% of your data points (the awkward ones which don't support your argument) then your whole report is rendered rubbish.

Seems like the whole report was pulled out of someone's arse.

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2020-01-03 04:53:09)

Fuck Israel
uziq
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how is it rendered rubbish when there is no equivalent for the other illicit drugs? you could just as easily say, 'well, someone who takes cocaine once a month, they're fine, they're below the [x] government's own arbitrarily imposed low-risk' ...

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