BF2S Forums Pandemic thread

Jay wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:

uziq wrote:

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

succinct overview of global fatality rates, including overlap with coronary disease.

Italy is at 10% fatality rate which leads me to believe that the Chinese were lying about their numbers and the virus is more deadly than people think. There is also a significant lag between first symptoms and death. People aren't dying right away but instead languishing for awhile. So we should expect our number of dead to jump way up in the coming week as some the early infected pass away.

The Italians are overestimating their dead from coronavirus by a factor of 6.

Proof?

SuperJail Warden wrote:

You can't make jokes about my mental illness. That is a violation of the Americans with Disabilities Act and I will sue you.

To be fair, I was referring to them in plural, and not unfairly singling any one of the multitude out.

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Jay wrote:

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Italy is at 10% fatality rate which leads me to believe that the Chinese were lying about their numbers and the virus is more deadly than people think. There is also a significant lag between first symptoms and death. People aren't dying right away but instead languishing for awhile. So we should expect our number of dead to jump way up in the coming week as some the early infected pass away.

The Italians are overestimating their dead from coronavirus by a factor of 6.

Proof?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal … ied-italy/

Jay wrote:

The Italians are overestimating their dead from coronavirus by a factor of 6.

No they're undercounting their infections, not hospitalising the marginally ill, only the old.

But they're probably testing a hell of a lot more than the US, and have more ICU beds per capita, so good luck.

Last edited by Dilbert_X (2020-03-29 14:25:54)

People keep telling me we're doing a terrible job and should follow the Chinese/Korean model of extensive testing and forced quarantine of every positive including all his or her last contacts.

I haven't studied the issue but it seems to me trust in public institutions is at historic lows. Whether that be due to the far right's efforts or the advent of the internet, everyone seems to consider themselves experts on epidemiology and qualified to second-guess the advice and decisions by national healthcare bodies all throughout the West. Honestly it's tiring.

Last edited by Larssen (2020-03-29 14:36:45)

Dilbert_X wrote:

So the power of muslim prayer didn't keep Indonesia safe, they started seeing clusters of pneumonia in mid-January but kept it secret.
Now they have people collapsing in the streets.

Glad thats cleared up.

why do you take such a disproportionate glee in watching innocent people who have faith die?

secular countries have mis-stepped just as badly. what's the relevance of the fact they congregate in churches rather than the secular religion, market places and shopping malls? it seems to me that both the religious and the strictly materialistic seem to behave as if they're immortal -- buoyed up by the same talismanic beliefs.

Last edited by uziq (2020-03-29 14:46:23)

SuperJail Warden wrote:

Larssen wrote:

People keep telling me we're doing a terrible job and should follow the Chinese/Korean model of extensive testing and forced quarantine of every positive including all his or her last contacts.

I haven't studied the issue but it seems to me trust in public institutions is at historic lows. Whether that be due to the far right's efforts or the advent of the internet, everyone seems to consider themselves experts on epidemiology and qualified to second-guess the advice and decisions by national healthcare bodies all throughout the West. Honestly it's tiring.

I would blame the far right much less than the media for the distrust of institutions in the west. It was the media that has spent decades promoting commercialism and cynicism.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uf8RbAGWxqY

Breathlessly telling people what the latest JAMA article has to say about X and Science has to say about Y without any depth, nuance or real understanding has led people to throw up their hands and distrust all medical professionals since they can find 75 articles that say X is bad and another 75 that say X is good. Who do you believe? Usually, it's whoever people who think like you trust more. Is fat bad? Is fat good? Is cholesterol bad? Is it neutral? It's all flipped a few times just in my lifespan. Hell, we still have Flat Earthers in the year 2020.

It appears we've managed to flatten the curve some (for now):



Blue is where we'd be if we'd followed the previous case numbers (exponential).

Red is where we are now. The author speculates that it's because we've adopted social distancing etc. Good news!

https://www.captainsjournal.com/2020/03 … omparison/

you just literally said less than two pages ago that people are acting irrationally, they are being stupid and ignorant, the spread is because human beings can't take responsibility for themselves, etc, this is why aaaahm a randian liberturian etc etc etc. now human beings are so rational they can stop a virus being exponential? which is it?

and no, the models do not assume that. do you really think research teams at the best centres of study in the world have not taken that into account in their modelling? this is where the entire phrase 'flatten the curve' comes from ...

the author must be clueless because nowhere else in the world expects to see the positive effects of social distancing until 20-30 days. they are only just starting to see the effects of it in italy now, a month after going into total lockdown. you don't get results a week later.

Last edited by uziq (2020-03-29 15:19:16)

Jay wrote:

uziq wrote:

nutrition isn't the same as epidemiology. bad argument.

for instance, your denial that viral spread cannot be exponential, is not exactly up for debate in the same way that the merits of extra virgin olive oil are.

Humans are mostly rational and can make decisions that mitigate a pure exponential growth rate.

Clearly you haven't watched Idiocracy.

unnamednewbie13 wrote:

Global Pandemic That Has Killed Thousands Giving Woman Just The Push She Needed To Organize Tupperware Cabinet 3/27
https://local.theonion.com/global-pande … 1842528634

satire wrote:

CHICAGO—Basking in the satisfaction of finally getting around to tackle a long-awaited project, local woman Carrie Wilhelm reportedly reflected Friday that the global coronavirus pandemic that has killed thousands gave her just the push she needed to organize her Tupperware cabinet. “I’ve been putting off organizing my food storage for what seems like forever, but turns out the only motivation I required was the COVID-19 pandemic giving me a little extra time,” said the marketing coordinator of the sustained period of uncertainty and mortality that will fundamentally reshape the global economy.

But for some of us in real life, it gives us the opportunity to replace parts of our wardrobe. Sometimes up to half of it.

Just admit you love this shit, Jay.

Oh man, I've already cleaned out my garage, my basement, and my closets. As soon as it stops raining I'm gonna get a ton of yardwork done. My next door neighbor built himself 9 raised beds. Gotta make the best of a bad situation newbie.

unnamednewbie13 wrote:

Having an unimaginable blast, I see. Maybe I had you all wrong. I took what you said on page one as an insult. But maybe your norm truly is to wallow in glee at any small conveniences local or global disaster might afford you.

Not for me, sorry.

Should I be depressed and miserable all day? You can laugh, or you can cry. I choose to laugh.

Jay wrote:

unnamednewbie13 wrote:

Having an unimaginable blast, I see. Maybe I had you all wrong. I took what you said on page one as an insult. But maybe your norm truly is to wallow in glee at any small conveniences local or global disaster might afford you.

Not for me, sorry.

Should I be depressed and miserable all day? You can laugh, or you can cry. I choose to laugh.

Did you get that from Tyler Durden or Heath Ledger's Joker?