Investment

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2020-05-19 12:46:59

#676

SuperJail Warden: Gone Forever; +654|4078

Jay wrote:
SuperJail Warden wrote:
Jay wrote:

Yes, we locked down, and it happened anyway. We had a governor that forced nursing homes to care for those sick with COVID and it wiped out thousands. We have public housing projects full of people who don't give a fuck about anything, and they got hit hard. We have hasidic communities that believe everything is God's will, and they got hit hard. Aside from the nursing home stuff that shit was going to happen regardless. Nothing changed. No lives were saved.
NYC locked down late. I think it was almost a full week before they shut down their schools after NJ did. They only did it after getting pressured to. I think the housing project outbreak has more to do with poverty, and close living than it has to do with how urban poor mentally approached the crisis. The urbanized poor made up the vast amount of essential workers that still needed to go out and do things. The urbanized poor had an even harder time getting PPE than wealthy people. And again, the PPE or just about any shortage is inexcusable considering the wealth of the federal government.
And poor black people tend to be obese and have much higher rates of diabetes. They were going to be ravaged comparatively if it got loose, and it did. The virus already hit the communities it was most likely to hurt badly. The quarantine was pointless.

Do you know how many Americans in your community are obese, diabetic, and old? If your schools, businesses, and services remained open, your town would have gotten infected too. In all likelihood you would have sent it to the local minority filled schools in your city when your kid starts kindergarten in the fall.

2020-05-19 12:51:59

#677

Jay: Bork! Bork! Bork!; +2,006|5716|London, England

SuperJail Warden wrote:
Jay wrote:
SuperJail Warden wrote:

NYC locked down late. I think it was almost a full week before they shut down their schools after NJ did. They only did it after getting pressured to. I think the housing project outbreak has more to do with poverty, and close living than it has to do with how urban poor mentally approached the crisis. The urbanized poor made up the vast amount of essential workers that still needed to go out and do things. The urbanized poor had an even harder time getting PPE than wealthy people. And again, the PPE or just about any shortage is inexcusable considering the wealth of the federal government.
And poor black people tend to be obese and have much higher rates of diabetes. They were going to be ravaged comparatively if it got loose, and it did. The virus already hit the communities it was most likely to hurt badly. The quarantine was pointless.
Do you know how many Americans in your community are obese, diabetic, and old? If your schools, businesses, and services remained open, your town would have gotten infected too. In all likelihood you would have sent it to the local minority filled schools in your city when your kid starts kindergarten in the fall.

Ok, so I'll temper my remarks. If the goal was to prevent loss of life in the most vulnerable communities, it failed utterly. If the goal was to prevent mostly healthy white middle and upper class people from coming down with what would be the flu for them, it was a rousing success.

"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think that you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough."
-Frederick Bastiat

2020-05-19 12:54:22

#678

uziq: Member; +518|3810

Jay wrote:
uziq wrote:
it didn't happen anyway. you locked down and greatly retarded the spread of the disease. how can you not comprehend that it would be much worse without the lockdown?

We have public housing projects full of people who don't give a fuck about anything, and they got hit hard.
you don't make any sense. in one post you are bemoaning elite liberals who can 'grubhub and amazon prime' through a quarantine. you talk about how they are happy to throw the lower-income people under the bus by closing their small businesses.

but then you say that projects are full of people 'who don't give a fuck about anything'? as opposed to, er, inhabited by the taxi drivers, bus drivers, and janitors of the city? so the people who have to work and need an income to make rent, it's their fault for getting the disease and dying in high numbers?

stop talking about stuff you don't understand. This isn't England.

i think that statement applies to every topic you ever comment on, jay. let’s move on. answer the question.

are the low income people disproportionately getting the disease to blame? or is it a matter of economic necessity, which those evil vampires on park slope won’t understand?

2020-05-19 12:56:06

#679

uziq: Member; +518|3810

Jay wrote:
SuperJail Warden wrote:
Jay wrote:

And poor black people tend to be obese and have much higher rates of diabetes. They were going to be ravaged comparatively if it got loose, and it did. The virus already hit the communities it was most likely to hurt badly. The quarantine was pointless.
Do you know how many Americans in your community are obese, diabetic, and old? If your schools, businesses, and services remained open, your town would have gotten infected too. In all likelihood you would have sent it to the local minority filled schools in your city when your kid starts kindergarten in the fall.
Ok, so I'll temper my remarks. If the goal was to prevent loss of life in the most vulnerable communities, it failed utterly. If the goal was to prevent mostly healthy white middle and upper class people from coming down with what would be the flu for them, it was a rousing success.

and do you think that in the last 3 months every person in a vulnerable population has had a dose? i feel like your thinking in this is propped up by the highly spurious assumption, expressed elsewhere, that most people have had it already (they haven’t, the antibody tests are unreliable; and you even dismissed the clinician who designed said antibody tests as an idiot).

2020-05-19 12:56:18

#680

SuperJail Warden: Gone Forever; +654|4078

Jay wrote:
SuperJail Warden wrote:
Jay wrote:

And poor black people tend to be obese and have much higher rates of diabetes. They were going to be ravaged comparatively if it got loose, and it did. The virus already hit the communities it was most likely to hurt badly. The quarantine was pointless.
Do you know how many Americans in your community are obese, diabetic, and old? If your schools, businesses, and services remained open, your town would have gotten infected too. In all likelihood you would have sent it to the local minority filled schools in your city when your kid starts kindergarten in the fall.
Ok, so I'll temper my remarks. If the goal was to prevent loss of life in the most vulnerable communities, it failed utterly. If the goal was to prevent mostly healthy white middle and upper class people from coming down with what would be the flu for them, it was a rousing success.

I don't quite agree but this is more nuanced than what you were going on about beforehand.

2020-05-19 13:14:11

#681

Jay: Bork! Bork! Bork!; +2,006|5716|London, England

uziq wrote:
Jay wrote:
uziq wrote:
it didn't happen anyway. you locked down and greatly retarded the spread of the disease. how can you not comprehend that it would be much worse without the lockdown?

you don't make any sense. in one post you are bemoaning elite liberals who can 'grubhub and amazon prime' through a quarantine. you talk about how they are happy to throw the lower-income people under the bus by closing their small businesses.

but then you say that projects are full of people 'who don't give a fuck about anything'? as opposed to, er, inhabited by the taxi drivers, bus drivers, and janitors of the city? so the people who have to work and need an income to make rent, it's their fault for getting the disease and dying in high numbers?

stop talking about stuff you don't understand. This isn't England.
i think that statement applies to every topic you ever comment on, jay. let’s move on. answer the question.

are the low income people disproportionately getting the disease to blame? or is it a matter of economic necessity, which those evil vampires on park slope won’t understand?

If they live in public housing, they live in rundown buildings without central ventilation systems. No one uses the stairwells, because they're generally full of gangs, so people take the elevator. Once the virus gets in, it's going to run wild. They are not people that take direction or respect authority. If you try to do stuff like limit elevator usage, they will fight you and do their own thing anyway. They are almost as fatalistic as your typical Hasidic Jew and would take just as few precautions, even if it were free. As soon as it got into the projects and the hasidic communities, the jig was up and the quarantine was pointless, which is pretty much from day 1.

2020-05-19 13:16:19

#682

Jay: Bork! Bork! Bork!; +2,006|5716|London, England

uziq wrote:
Jay wrote:
SuperJail Warden wrote:

Do you know how many Americans in your community are obese, diabetic, and old? If your schools, businesses, and services remained open, your town would have gotten infected too. In all likelihood you would have sent it to the local minority filled schools in your city when your kid starts kindergarten in the fall.
Ok, so I'll temper my remarks. If the goal was to prevent loss of life in the most vulnerable communities, it failed utterly. If the goal was to prevent mostly healthy white middle and upper class people from coming down with what would be the flu for them, it was a rousing success.
and do you think that in the last 3 months every person in a vulnerable population has had a dose? i feel like your thinking in this is propped up by the highly spurious assumption, expressed elsewhere, that most people have had it already (they haven’t, the antibody tests are unreliable; and you even dismissed the clinician who designed said antibody tests as an idiot).

Yeah, you keep repeating that one time I said anecdotally that most people probably had it. I've since, I dunno, twenty times, shown that at least 20-25% of the NYC population has already had the virus based on randomized antibody testing. Not the majority, but at least 4 million people in the NYC area have had it.

2020-05-19 13:18:35

#683

uziq: Member; +518|3810

except not because the disease has a rate of infection and would take quite some time to spread freely to the entire population. it’s not over from day1 at all.

were the south koreans resigned? oh it’s arrived in seoul, one of the great megalopolises of the world. oh it has infected christian sects in korea who don’t listen to advice. let’s give up? no. they weren’t. how are their stats again?

what is it with you complaining hatefully about various groups’ fatalism whilst being the most resigned and fatalistic of all?

i am convinced you are feeble-minded.

Last edited by uziq (2020-05-19 13:20:47)

2020-05-19 13:19:35

#684

uziq: Member; +518|3810

Jay wrote:
uziq wrote:
Jay wrote:
Ok, so I'll temper my remarks. If the goal was to prevent loss of life in the most vulnerable communities, it failed utterly. If the goal was to prevent mostly healthy white middle and upper class people from coming down with what would be the flu for them, it was a rousing success.
and do you think that in the last 3 months every person in a vulnerable population has had a dose? i feel like your thinking in this is propped up by the highly spurious assumption, expressed elsewhere, that most people have had it already (they haven’t, the antibody tests are unreliable; and you even dismissed the clinician who designed said antibody tests as an idiot).
Yeah, you keep repeating that one time I said anecdotally that most people probably had it. I've since, I dunno, twenty times, shown that at least 20-25% of the NYC population has already had the virus based on randomized antibody testing. Not the majority, but at least 4 million people in the NYC area have had it.

right, okay. so you’re happy for 5x as many people to die in any given year? and then next year or whenever the short-term immunity wears off, you’re happy to go for another spin again? another 100k in 4 months? this is good policy to you?

Last edited by uziq (2020-05-19 13:20:00)

2020-05-19 13:21:52

#685

SuperJail Warden: Gone Forever; +654|4078

Jay wrote:
uziq wrote:
Jay wrote:

stop talking about stuff you don't understand. This isn't England.
i think that statement applies to every topic you ever comment on, jay. let’s move on. answer the question.

are the low income people disproportionately getting the disease to blame? or is it a matter of economic necessity, which those evil vampires on park slope won’t understand?
If they live in public housing, they live in rundown buildings without central ventilation systems. No one uses the stairwells, because they're generally full of gangs, so people take the elevator. Once the virus gets in, it's going to run wild. They are not people that take direction or respect authority. If you try to do stuff like limit elevator usage, they will fight you and do their own thing anyway. They are almost as fatalistic as your typical Hasidic Jew and would take just as few precautions, even if it were free. As soon as it got into the projects and the hasidic communities, the jig was up and the quarantine was pointless, which is pretty much from day 1.

People don't avoid taking the stairs because of camped gang members.

Why NYC's housing developments got blasted and he ghettos of other cities like Newark, Philly, Jersey City, etc. didn't is a tough question. I don't think the black people in the Newark ghettos took the virus more seriously or live healthier than New Yorkers. I think the national lock down combined with intensive focus on New York's problems prevented Italian/NYC COVID from taking out the entire northeast.

Last edited by SuperJail Warden (2020-05-19 13:22:31)

2020-05-19 13:54:30

#686

Jay: Bork! Bork! Bork!; +2,006|5716|London, England

SuperJail Warden wrote:
Jay wrote:
uziq wrote:

i think that statement applies to every topic you ever comment on, jay. let’s move on. answer the question.

are the low income people disproportionately getting the disease to blame? or is it a matter of economic necessity, which those evil vampires on park slope won’t understand?
If they live in public housing, they live in rundown buildings without central ventilation systems. No one uses the stairwells, because they're generally full of gangs, so people take the elevator. Once the virus gets in, it's going to run wild. They are not people that take direction or respect authority. If you try to do stuff like limit elevator usage, they will fight you and do their own thing anyway. They are almost as fatalistic as your typical Hasidic Jew and would take just as few precautions, even if it were free. As soon as it got into the projects and the hasidic communities, the jig was up and the quarantine was pointless, which is pretty much from day 1.
People don't avoid taking the stairs because of camped gang members.

Why NYC's housing developments got blasted and he ghettos of other cities like Newark, Philly, Jersey City, etc. didn't is a tough question. I don't think the black people in the Newark ghettos took the virus more seriously or live healthier than New Yorkers. I think the national lock down combined with intensive focus on New York's problems prevented Italian/NYC COVID from taking out the entire northeast.

None of them have a rancid subway system.

2020-05-20 00:35:06

#687

Dilbert_X: The X stands for; +1,818|6464|eXtreme to the maX

Jay wrote:
it's mostly because they hate Trump and they're against anything he is for

Not everyone goes in for this infantile oppositional-defiance, and it is infantilism.

Maybe they're just better educated and understand that during a pandemic its best to follow medical advice.

Fuck Israel

2020-05-21 07:47:11

#688

SuperJail Warden: Gone Forever; +654|4078

3 million more unemployed in the last week. CNBC said this was a good sign because it meant that unemployment was leveling off. Meanwhile the Republican Senate majority leader is vowing to end enhanced unemployment to force people back to work.

2020-05-21 08:14:00

#689

Larssen: Member; +99|2246

Can we acknowledge the science at the moment has huge margins of error. 25% seems like a wild top end guesstimate. In terms of antibodies most countries report anywhere from 2 to 8%, which is already a huge range.

2020-05-21 08:16:42

#690

uziq: Member; +518|3810

we've been saying that for a while. the only person going with the most optimistic forecasts is jay. whilst denigrating worst-case scenario modelling as being catastrophic.

i'm beginning to see the appeal of religion. hope is just a much sexier sell.

2020-05-21 08:26:20

#691

Jay: Bork! Bork! Bork!; +2,006|5716|London, England

Larssen wrote:
Can we acknowledge the science at the moment has huge margins of error. 25% seems like a wild top end guesstimate. In terms of antibodies most countries report anywhere from 2 to 8%, which is already a huge range.

Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, Governor Andrew M. Cuomo today announced the results of the state's completed antibody testing study, showing 12.3 percent of the population have COVID-19 antibodies. The survey developed a baseline infection rate by testing 15,000 people at grocery stores and community centers across the state over the past two weeks. Of those tested, 11.5% of women tested positive and 13.1% of men tested positive. A regional breakdown of the results is below:

Region

Percent Positive

Capital District

2.2%

Central NY

1.9%

Finger Lakes

2.6%

Hudson Valley
(Without Westchester/Rockland)

3%

Long Island

11.4%

Mohawk Valley

2.7%

North Country

1.2%

NYC

19.9%

Southern Tier

2.4%

Westchester/Rockland

13.8%

Western NY

6%

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-o … dy-testing

2020-05-21 08:27:35

#692

uziq: Member; +518|3810

those antibody tests are not reliable, which is the point. you taking "20%" in NYC as gospel is foolish. it could be a lot less.

and besides, you still never answered: are you happy for 5x as many new yorkers to die every peak, on average?

2020-05-21 08:29:03

#693

SuperJail Warden: Gone Forever; +654|4078

Jay wrote:
Larssen wrote:
Can we acknowledge the science at the moment has huge margins of error. 25% seems like a wild top end guesstimate. In terms of antibodies most countries report anywhere from 2 to 8%, which is already a huge range.
Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, Governor Andrew M. Cuomo today announced the results of the state's completed antibody testing study, showing 12.3 percent of the population have COVID-19 antibodies. The survey developed a baseline infection rate by testing 15,000 people at grocery stores and community centers across the state over the past two weeks. Of those tested, 11.5% of women tested positive and 13.1% of men tested positive. A regional breakdown of the results is below:

Region

Percent Positive

Capital District

2.2%

Central NY

1.9%

Finger Lakes

2.6%

Hudson Valley
(Without Westchester/Rockland)

3%

Long Island

11.4%

Mohawk Valley

2.7%

North Country

1.2%

NYC

19.9%

Southern Tier

2.4%

Westchester/Rockland

13.8%

Western NY

6%
https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-o … dy-testing

That doesn't mean 12% of the population has COVID. That means 12% of the population willing to go out and get tested tested positive. There are still a lot of people who barely go out and prefer to paint toys all day.

2020-05-21 08:29:26

#694

SuperJail Warden: Gone Forever; +654|4078

I mean its not random sample. Is that the prefer science term? I majored in history.

2020-05-21 08:33:38

#695

uziq: Member; +518|3810

jay has cited some random sampled antibody experiment elsewhere. i'm not sure he was referring to the cuomo stats. that would be very silly if he was. because, yes, that only reflects the % of able-bodied and plucky people who are venturing out to get groceries. in many households that could only be one person. that could quite easily put the 'real' number of people with antibodies down to the 5-10% reported elsewhere in europe.

2020-05-21 08:54:44

#696

Larssen: Member; +99|2246

Jay wrote:
https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-results-completed-antibody-testing

12.3% is in the believable but they don't say much about the degree of confidence. There's around 8 or 9 million people in NYC? Is 15k a large enough pool to make such definitive statements? There's still quite a lot of room for variation here, also due to testing locations etc.

Regardless, 12.3% isn't nearly enough to say that herd immunity is at an acceptable level or that most of the high risk have already been hit. On the contrary, it's still a limited amount of people who were infected, and the situation was bad enough that emergency hospitals had to be built and your governor scrambled for ventilators. Imagine what would happen if double or triple that number is infected dude.

2020-05-21 08:55:44

#697

uziq: Member; +518|3810

"Can we acknowledge the science at the moment" that there is no proof, anywhere, that human populations develop herd immunity to coronaviruses? we don't for the common cold.

2020-05-21 08:57:49

#698

Larssen: Member; +99|2246

Well, that too, but I don't know where the understanding on that topic is at right now. Are there many cases of reinfection?

2020-05-21 09:04:24

#699

uziq: Member; +518|3810

2 peer-reviewed articles came out in the last few days establishing that monkeys develop short-term immunity (~40 days after recovery) to covid-19. that's about as good as we've got in terms of properly controlled, reproducible results.

a short-term immunity window after being infected is promising news, but it isn't much. it's a long way from meaningful 'natural' immunity required to maintain herd immunity in a general population.

Last edited by uziq (2020-05-21 09:05:10)

2020-05-21 09:14:51

#700

SuperJail Warden: Gone Forever; +654|4078

There is still a long way to go until we reach herd immunity if there is such a thing or until everyone gets it. The U.S. is adding 22,000 new cases a day. It's still 133 days until October when it starts to freeze up in the North East. At the rate we are going that is only an extra 3 million infections or about less than 1% of the U.S. population. Only 100 days until schools reopen too which will be a disaster.

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Jay wrote:

Jay wrote:

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Jay wrote:

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uziq wrote:

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uziq wrote:

Jay wrote:

Jay wrote:

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