Pochsy wrote:
So that analysis holds true, or has the potential to be true, if we are assuming 1.) that the market is tied to the economy in a meaningful way, and 2.) that the market prices securities primarily using fundamental analysis and is not more-so speculative. Both of those assumptions appear to be very heavily challenged by the current situation we are seeing now where markets are clearly divorced from the underlying economic indicators and almost all investors, both retail and institutional, are trading on speculation as to the severity, length, and resiliency of businesses.
I don't at all doubt that we'll see a pullback in the coming months, but I don't think it's going to be a crater that takes years to climb out of. I think, as you've suggested, that there's a whole lot of cash being sat on at the moment, and that money is looking for a dip to buy. Depending on when that second dip happens and how depleted cash reserves are by that time, the pullback may immediately be reversed when the opportunists trying to time the market see an opening.
To come back to this discussion: there are of course several factors influencing stock market pricing. Fundamentals, technicals and more recently just 'hype' - either latching on to stocks because they're 'future tech' or because of FOMO, completely detached from any rational analysis. Technicals are becoming ever more important as more of the trading is automated, the machines making moves mostly because of technical indicators.
Yes it's true that many opportunists seem to be in waiting for a second dip. What happened in march was a panicked sell-off, though I'd also like to underline that we're equally blind now, only this time trending upwards as millions of people latch on to this dip to make a quick buck, many of whom enabled by new brokerage platforms that have made it easier than ever before to participate in trading. But we're blind for the fact that as of yet very little is actually known about the state of several sectors and their constituent players.
Ultimately fundamentals do matter a great deal. It is a certainty that in the coming months and year, and still depending on how the situation unfolds, there will be companies announcing abysmal performance and there will be companies forced to declare bankruptcies. While you may point to the example of hertz that it doesn't matter at all today - it does. At some point everyone still holding the stock at the spike will lose enormous amoutns of money as it drops. A company in bankruptcy no longer generates any value. It's past its expiration date and will be thrown in with the trash sooner or later. It's like a hot potato being passed around, each next buyer in his or her greed hoping to still profit a little.
I don't know exactly what the effect of the whole situation will be on economic performance and how that will translate to the stock market. But every long-serving professional in the investment world I've listened to in the last two months is convinced that current pricings are completely uunrealistic/unsustainable and that there will be another sell-off and perhaps sustained drop. I don't see an argument to deviate from that position. While we may not see a cliff dive like in march, market performance may still end up significantly below those numbers in the coming year.
Last edited by Larssen (4 years, 10 months ago)